Gregory Meeks, the long-serving Democratic incumbent in New York's 5th Congressional District, holds a commanding 96.9% implied probability in the November 3, 2026 general election due to the district's strong Democratic lean in southeast Queens. Multiple nonpartisan rating firms classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Meeks' prior results exceeding 70% and the absence of competitive primary challenges after both parties' June contests were canceled. His substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $1.7 million, further reinforces trader consensus, while Republican nominee George Marsh shows negligible reported receipts. A shift in odds would require late-cycle developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or unforeseen national swing capable of overcoming the district's established partisan baseline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNY-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NY-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$63,692 Объем
$63,692 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Грегори Микс (Д)
97%
Джордж Марш (Р)
1%
$63,692 Объем
$63,692 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Грегори Микс (Д)
$21,390 Объем
97%
Джордж Марш (Р)
$42,302 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Gregory Meeks, the long-serving Democratic incumbent in New York's 5th Congressional District, holds a commanding 96.9% implied probability in the November 3, 2026 general election due to the district's strong Democratic lean in southeast Queens. Multiple nonpartisan rating firms classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Meeks' prior results exceeding 70% and the absence of competitive primary challenges after both parties' June contests were canceled. His substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $1.7 million, further reinforces trader consensus, while Republican nominee George Marsh shows negligible reported receipts. A shift in odds would require late-cycle developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or unforeseen national swing capable of overcoming the district's established partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Объем
$63,692Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Gregory Meeks, the long-serving Democratic incumbent in New York's 5th Congressional District, holds a commanding 96.9% implied probability in the November 3, 2026 general election due to the district's strong Democratic lean in southeast Queens. Multiple nonpartisan rating firms classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Meeks' prior results exceeding 70% and the absence of competitive primary challenges after both parties' June contests were canceled. His substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $1.7 million, further reinforces trader consensus, while Republican nominee George Marsh shows negligible reported receipts. A shift in odds would require late-cycle developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or unforeseen national swing capable of overcoming the district's established partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$63,692Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Gregory Meeks, the long-serving Democratic incumbent in New York's 5th Congressional District, holds a commanding 96.9% implied probability in the November 3, 2026 general election due to the district's strong Democratic lean in southeast Queens. Multiple nonpartisan rating firms classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Meeks' prior results exceeding 70% and the absence of competitive primary challenges after both parties' June contests were canceled. His substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $1.7 million, further reinforces trader consensus, while Republican nominee George Marsh shows negligible reported receipts. A shift in odds would require late-cycle developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or unforeseen national swing capable of overcoming the district's established partisan baseline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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