Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination for Kentucky’s 4th congressional district by defeating longtime incumbent Thomas Massie in the May 2026 primary, backed by President Trump and substantial outside spending. The district’s consistent Republican lean, demonstrated by double-digit margins for GOP presidential candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring Gallrein in the November general election. Democrat Melissa Strange advanced from her primary but trails significantly in fundraising and faces structural challenges in this solidly Republican area. Minor-party candidates on the ballot add limited uncertainty, while the absence of recent polling or major developments leaves the race’s fundamentals largely unchanged since the primaries. Late developments such as a national political shift or candidate-specific issues could still influence the final outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоKY-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
KY-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$37,603 Объем
$37,603 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Эд Галрейн (Р)
94%
Мелисса Стрэндж (Д)
6%
$37,603 Объем
$37,603 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Эд Галрейн (Р)
$25,306 Объем
94%
Мелисса Стрэндж (Д)
$12,297 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination for Kentucky’s 4th congressional district by defeating longtime incumbent Thomas Massie in the May 2026 primary, backed by President Trump and substantial outside spending. The district’s consistent Republican lean, demonstrated by double-digit margins for GOP presidential candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring Gallrein in the November general election. Democrat Melissa Strange advanced from her primary but trails significantly in fundraising and faces structural challenges in this solidly Republican area. Minor-party candidates on the ballot add limited uncertainty, while the absence of recent polling or major developments leaves the race’s fundamentals largely unchanged since the primaries. Late developments such as a national political shift or candidate-specific issues could still influence the final outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$37,603Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination for Kentucky’s 4th congressional district by defeating longtime incumbent Thomas Massie in the May 2026 primary, backed by President Trump and substantial outside spending. The district’s consistent Republican lean, demonstrated by double-digit margins for GOP presidential candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring Gallrein in the November general election. Democrat Melissa Strange advanced from her primary but trails significantly in fundraising and faces structural challenges in this solidly Republican area. Minor-party candidates on the ballot add limited uncertainty, while the absence of recent polling or major developments leaves the race’s fundamentals largely unchanged since the primaries. Late developments such as a national political shift or candidate-specific issues could still influence the final outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$37,603Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination for Kentucky’s 4th congressional district by defeating longtime incumbent Thomas Massie in the May 2026 primary, backed by President Trump and substantial outside spending. The district’s consistent Republican lean, demonstrated by double-digit margins for GOP presidential candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring Gallrein in the November general election. Democrat Melissa Strange advanced from her primary but trails significantly in fundraising and faces structural challenges in this solidly Republican area. Minor-party candidates on the ballot add limited uncertainty, while the absence of recent polling or major developments leaves the race’s fundamentals largely unchanged since the primaries. Late developments such as a national political shift or candidate-specific issues could still influence the final outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы