Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner holds a strong position in Washington’s 5th Congressional District ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat’s Solid Republican rating from multiple forecasters and his 21-point victory in the 2024 rematch against Democrat Carmela Conroy. The August 4 top-two primary confirmed the same general election matchup, with Baumgartner advancing at 47.4% and Conroy at 18.9%. Baumgartner’s substantial fundraising edge, committee roles on Foreign Affairs and Judiciary, and consistent support in a district that favored Republicans in recent cycles underpin trader consensus. Conroy’s campaign emphasizes local roots and prior diplomatic experience, yet faces structural headwinds in a district with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP. No major late-cycle disruptions have altered the trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоWA-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
WA-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$55,843 Объем
$55,843 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Майкл Баумгартнер (Р)
81%
Кармела Конрой (Д)
19%
$55,843 Объем
$55,843 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Майкл Баумгартнер (Р)
$22,351 Объем
81%
Кармела Конрой (Д)
$33,492 Объем
19%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner holds a strong position in Washington’s 5th Congressional District ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat’s Solid Republican rating from multiple forecasters and his 21-point victory in the 2024 rematch against Democrat Carmela Conroy. The August 4 top-two primary confirmed the same general election matchup, with Baumgartner advancing at 47.4% and Conroy at 18.9%. Baumgartner’s substantial fundraising edge, committee roles on Foreign Affairs and Judiciary, and consistent support in a district that favored Republicans in recent cycles underpin trader consensus. Conroy’s campaign emphasizes local roots and prior diplomatic experience, yet faces structural headwinds in a district with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP. No major late-cycle disruptions have altered the trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Объем
$55,843Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner holds a strong position in Washington’s 5th Congressional District ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat’s Solid Republican rating from multiple forecasters and his 21-point victory in the 2024 rematch against Democrat Carmela Conroy. The August 4 top-two primary confirmed the same general election matchup, with Baumgartner advancing at 47.4% and Conroy at 18.9%. Baumgartner’s substantial fundraising edge, committee roles on Foreign Affairs and Judiciary, and consistent support in a district that favored Republicans in recent cycles underpin trader consensus. Conroy’s campaign emphasizes local roots and prior diplomatic experience, yet faces structural headwinds in a district with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP. No major late-cycle disruptions have altered the trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$55,843Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner holds a strong position in Washington’s 5th Congressional District ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat’s Solid Republican rating from multiple forecasters and his 21-point victory in the 2024 rematch against Democrat Carmela Conroy. The August 4 top-two primary confirmed the same general election matchup, with Baumgartner advancing at 47.4% and Conroy at 18.9%. Baumgartner’s substantial fundraising edge, committee roles on Foreign Affairs and Judiciary, and consistent support in a district that favored Republicans in recent cycles underpin trader consensus. Conroy’s campaign emphasizes local roots and prior diplomatic experience, yet faces structural headwinds in a district with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP. No major late-cycle disruptions have altered the trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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