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icon for Vencedor da eleição para governador de Sergipe
Política·Brasil

Vencedor da eleição para governador de Sergipe

icon for Vencedor da eleição para governador de Sergipe
Política·Brasil

Vencedor da eleição para governador de Sergipe

Fábio 84%

Valmir de Francisquinho 17%

Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%

Dr. Helton <1%

Polymarket

$29,297 Vol.

Fábio 84%

Valmir de Francisquinho 17%

Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%

Dr. Helton <1%

Polymarket

$29,297 Vol.

icon for Fábio

Fábio

$19,025 Vol.

84%

icon for Valmir de Francisquinho

Valmir de Francisquinho

$6,583 Vol.

17%

icon for Taty Cristina de Jesus

Taty Cristina de Jesus

$1,712 Vol.

<1%

icon for Dr. Helton

Dr. Helton

$900 Vol.

<1%

icon for Emanuel Cacho

Emanuel Cacho

$634 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ricardo Marques

Ricardo Marques

$443 Vol.

<1%

The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor running for re-election, holds an 83.5% implied probability in the Sergipe gubernatorial market, well ahead of Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 16.5% and minor candidates at negligible levels. Traders appear to price in Fábio’s structural advantages as sitting governor, established party infrastructure, and recent polling leads in several surveys despite mixed results showing Valmir ahead or tied in others from mid-to-late September. Valmir’s eligibility was reaffirmed by a partial STJ ruling in early September that addressed prior convictions, allowing his campaign to proceed, while both frontrunners maintain active schedules of rallies, interviews, and regional visits ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Minor contenders such as Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), Dr. Helton (PSOL), and Taty Cristina de Jesus (DC) register minimal support in surveys and market pricing. The tight overall contest and high undecided share in polls underscore uncertainty until votes are cast.

The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$29,297
Data de Término
1 jul 2027
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor running for re-election, holds an 83.5% implied probability in the Sergipe gubernatorial market, well ahead of Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 16.5% and minor candidates at negligible levels. Traders appear to price in Fábio’s structural advantages as sitting governor, established party infrastructure, and recent polling leads in several surveys despite mixed results showing Valmir ahead or tied in others from mid-to-late September. Valmir’s eligibility was reaffirmed by a partial STJ ruling in early September that addressed prior convictions, allowing his campaign to proceed, while both frontrunners maintain active schedules of rallies, interviews, and regional visits ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Minor contenders such as Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), Dr. Helton (PSOL), and Taty Cristina de Jesus (DC) register minimal support in surveys and market pricing. The tight overall contest and high undecided share in polls underscore uncertainty until votes are cast.

The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$29,297
Data de Término
1 jul 2027
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição para governador de Sergipe" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Fábio" at 84%, followed by "Valmir de Francisquinho" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da eleição para governador de Sergipe" has generated $29.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição para governador de Sergipe," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição para governador de Sergipe" is "Fábio" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Valmir de Francisquinho" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição para governador de Sergipe" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.