Recent moderation in Brazil’s IPCA, driven by lower food prices and four straight months of subdued monthly readings, has anchored trader expectations for 2026 annual inflation near 5%. The September 8 Focus survey lowered the median projection to exactly 5.0% from 5.01%, while the July 12-month rate eased to 4.44%—back inside the 3% ±1.5 pp target band—supporting the 42% probability on the 5.00-5.49% bin and 33% on 4.50-4.99%. Persistent above-target forecasts for the full year reflect residual pressures from administered prices and a still-elevated Selic rate near 14%, with the market holding the year-end policy rate at 13.75%. The closely matched bins highlight uncertainty over the remaining months, where the August IPCA release on September 11 and subsequent Copom decisions could shift probabilities between the 4.5-5.5% range.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado5,00-5,49% 41.6%
4,50-4,99% 33.5%
5,50-5,99% 17.9%
6,00-6,49% 1.9%
$107,293 Vol.
$107,293 Vol.
11 jan 2027
<3,00%
<1%
3,00-3,49%
<1%
3,50-3,99%
1%
4,00-4,49%
2%
4,50-4,99%
34%
5,00-5,49%
42%
5,50-5,99%
18%
6,00-6,49%
2%
6,50-6,99%
<1%
7,00%+
<1%
5,00-5,49% 41.6%
4,50-4,99% 33.5%
5,50-5,99% 17.9%
6,00-6,49% 1.9%
$107,293 Vol.
$107,293 Vol.
11 jan 2027
<3,00%
$6,485 Vol.
<1%
3,00-3,49%
$6,367 Vol.
<1%
3,50-3,99%
$13,840 Vol.
1%
4,00-4,49%
$14,865 Vol.
2%
4,50-4,99%
$18,166 Vol.
34%
5,00-5,49%
$16,619 Vol.
42%
5,50-5,99%
$11,228 Vol.
18%
6,00-6,49%
$7,549 Vol.
2%
6,50-6,99%
$7,041 Vol.
<1%
7,00%+
$5,134 Vol.
<1%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent moderation in Brazil’s IPCA, driven by lower food prices and four straight months of subdued monthly readings, has anchored trader expectations for 2026 annual inflation near 5%. The September 8 Focus survey lowered the median projection to exactly 5.0% from 5.01%, while the July 12-month rate eased to 4.44%—back inside the 3% ±1.5 pp target band—supporting the 42% probability on the 5.00-5.49% bin and 33% on 4.50-4.99%. Persistent above-target forecasts for the full year reflect residual pressures from administered prices and a still-elevated Selic rate near 14%, with the market holding the year-end policy rate at 13.75%. The closely matched bins highlight uncertainty over the remaining months, where the August IPCA release on September 11 and subsequent Copom decisions could shift probabilities between the 4.5-5.5% range.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado Aberto: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$107,293Data de Término
12 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent moderation in Brazil’s IPCA, driven by lower food prices and four straight months of subdued monthly readings, has anchored trader expectations for 2026 annual inflation near 5%. The September 8 Focus survey lowered the median projection to exactly 5.0% from 5.01%, while the July 12-month rate eased to 4.44%—back inside the 3% ±1.5 pp target band—supporting the 42% probability on the 5.00-5.49% bin and 33% on 4.50-4.99%. Persistent above-target forecasts for the full year reflect residual pressures from administered prices and a still-elevated Selic rate near 14%, with the market holding the year-end policy rate at 13.75%. The closely matched bins highlight uncertainty over the remaining months, where the August IPCA release on September 11 and subsequent Copom decisions could shift probabilities between the 4.5-5.5% range.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$107,293Data de Término
12 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent moderation in Brazil’s IPCA, driven by lower food prices and four straight months of subdued monthly readings, has anchored trader expectations for 2026 annual inflation near 5%. The September 8 Focus survey lowered the median projection to exactly 5.0% from 5.01%, while the July 12-month rate eased to 4.44%—back inside the 3% ±1.5 pp target band—supporting the 42% probability on the 5.00-5.49% bin and 33% on 4.50-4.99%. Persistent above-target forecasts for the full year reflect residual pressures from administered prices and a still-elevated Selic rate near 14%, with the market holding the year-end policy rate at 13.75%. The closely matched bins highlight uncertainty over the remaining months, where the August IPCA release on September 11 and subsequent Copom decisions could shift probabilities between the 4.5-5.5% range.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions