Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking reelection, holds overwhelming trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability, driven by recent polling trends showing him leading or expanding his advantage over Valmir de Francisquinho of the Republicanos. August and mid-2026 surveys, including those from Quaest and CTAS, placed Fábio ahead by double-digit margins in valid-vote scenarios, reflecting incumbency benefits, coalition-building, and campaign focus on education and infrastructure priorities ahead of the October 4 first round. Valmir, at 10.5%, remains the main opposition contender but trails consistently in late-cycle data, with minor candidates like Ricardo Marques, Emanuel Cacho, and others registering negligible support. The first-round timeline and absence of major late disruptions reinforce the current positioning among traders.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoFábio 90%
Valmir de Francisquinho 10%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$19,773 Vol.
$19,773 Vol.
4 out 2026
Fábio
90%
Valmir de Francisquinho
10%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
<1%
Emanuel Cacho
<1%
Dr. Helton
<1%
Ricardo Marques
<1%
Fábio 90%
Valmir de Francisquinho 10%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$19,773 Vol.
$19,773 Vol.
4 out 2026
Fábio
$15,659 Vol.
90%
Valmir de Francisquinho
$1,717 Vol.
10%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
$637 Vol.
<1%
Emanuel Cacho
$618 Vol.
<1%
Dr. Helton
$699 Vol.
<1%
Ricardo Marques
$443 Vol.
<1%
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking reelection, holds overwhelming trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability, driven by recent polling trends showing him leading or expanding his advantage over Valmir de Francisquinho of the Republicanos. August and mid-2026 surveys, including those from Quaest and CTAS, placed Fábio ahead by double-digit margins in valid-vote scenarios, reflecting incumbency benefits, coalition-building, and campaign focus on education and infrastructure priorities ahead of the October 4 first round. Valmir, at 10.5%, remains the main opposition contender but trails consistently in late-cycle data, with minor candidates like Ricardo Marques, Emanuel Cacho, and others registering negligible support. The first-round timeline and absence of major late disruptions reinforce the current positioning among traders.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$19,773Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking reelection, holds overwhelming trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability, driven by recent polling trends showing him leading or expanding his advantage over Valmir de Francisquinho of the Republicanos. August and mid-2026 surveys, including those from Quaest and CTAS, placed Fábio ahead by double-digit margins in valid-vote scenarios, reflecting incumbency benefits, coalition-building, and campaign focus on education and infrastructure priorities ahead of the October 4 first round. Valmir, at 10.5%, remains the main opposition contender but trails consistently in late-cycle data, with minor candidates like Ricardo Marques, Emanuel Cacho, and others registering negligible support. The first-round timeline and absence of major late disruptions reinforce the current positioning among traders.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$19,773Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking reelection, holds overwhelming trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability, driven by recent polling trends showing him leading or expanding his advantage over Valmir de Francisquinho of the Republicanos. August and mid-2026 surveys, including those from Quaest and CTAS, placed Fábio ahead by double-digit margins in valid-vote scenarios, reflecting incumbency benefits, coalition-building, and campaign focus on education and infrastructure priorities ahead of the October 4 first round. Valmir, at 10.5%, remains the main opposition contender but trails consistently in late-cycle data, with minor candidates like Ricardo Marques, Emanuel Cacho, and others registering negligible support. The first-round timeline and absence of major late disruptions reinforce the current positioning among traders.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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