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icon for Casos de sarampo nos EUA em 2026?
Clima E Ciência·Recompensas 20, 4,5, 50

Casos de sarampo nos EUA em 2026?

icon for Casos de sarampo nos EUA em 2026?
Clima E Ciência·Recompensas 20, 4,5, 50

Casos de sarampo nos EUA em 2026?

out 1

jan 1, 2027

out 1

jan 1, 2027

Polymarket

$7,897,763 Vol.

Polymarket

$7,897,763 Vol.

↑3,5k

$15,573 Vol.

99%

↑4k

$240,810 Vol.

96%

↑4,5k

$2,930 Vol.

86%

↑4,5k

$626 Vol.

86%

↑5k

$242,023 Vol.

70%

↑7,5k

$194,220 Vol.

15%

↑10k

$6,524,884 Vol.

7%

↑12,5 mil

$356,740 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.As of mid-September 2026, the CDC reports 3,294 confirmed U.S. measles cases—already exceeding the full-year 2025 total of 2,289—with 95% outbreak-associated across 38 new clusters and 94% occurring in unvaccinated or unknown-status individuals. Pennsylvania now leads with roughly 676 cases amid sustained transmission, following major activity in South Carolina and Utah, while 8% of patients have required hospitalization. This trajectory reflects measles' high basic reproduction number, declining MMR coverage among kindergartners, and carryover chains from 2025, placing the nation at risk of losing its 2000 elimination status during the November PAHO review. Weekly CDC surveillance updates and state reporting through year-end represent key catalysts that could shift final tallies, though models indicate continued growth given current conditions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Volume
$7,897,763
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 2:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.As of mid-September 2026, the CDC reports 3,294 confirmed U.S. measles cases—already exceeding the full-year 2025 total of 2,289—with 95% outbreak-associated across 38 new clusters and 94% occurring in unvaccinated or unknown-status individuals. Pennsylvania now leads with roughly 676 cases amid sustained transmission, following major activity in South Carolina and Utah, while 8% of patients have required hospitalization. This trajectory reflects measles' high basic reproduction number, declining MMR coverage among kindergartners, and carryover chains from 2025, placing the nation at risk of losing its 2000 elimination status during the November PAHO review. Weekly CDC surveillance updates and state reporting through year-end represent key catalysts that could shift final tallies, though models indicate continued growth given current conditions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Volume
$7,897,763
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 2:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Casos de sarampo nos EUA em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↑500" at 100%, followed by "↑1k" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Casos de sarampo nos EUA em 2026?" has generated $7.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 1, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Casos de sarampo nos EUA em 2026?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Casos de sarampo nos EUA em 2026?" is "↑500" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↑1k" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Casos de sarampo nos EUA em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.