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icon for Quando se formará o primeiro furacão no Atlântico em 2026?
Clima E Ciência·Clima

Quando se formará o primeiro furacão no Atlântico em 2026?

icon for Quando se formará o primeiro furacão no Atlântico em 2026?
Clima E Ciência·Clima

Quando se formará o primeiro furacão no Atlântico em 2026?

Nenhum furacão do Atlântico se formará em setembro de 2026 55%

26 a 30 de setembro de 2026 14%

21 a 25 de setembro de 2026 12%

16 a 20 de setembro de 2026 10%

Polymarket
NOVO

Nenhum furacão do Atlântico se formará em setembro de 2026 55%

26 a 30 de setembro de 2026 14%

21 a 25 de setembro de 2026 12%

16 a 20 de setembro de 2026 10%

Polymarket
NOVO

1º a 10 de setembro de 2026

$586 Vol.

1%

11 a 15 de setembro de 2026

$408 Vol.

3%

16 a 20 de setembro de 2026

$1,540 Vol.

10%

21 a 25 de setembro de 2026

$1,554 Vol.

12%

26 a 30 de setembro de 2026

$560 Vol.

14%

Nenhum furacão do Atlântico se formará em setembro de 2026

$424 Vol.

55%

This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026. The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026". The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Strong El Niño conditions are sustaining elevated vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, inhibiting tropical cyclogenesis and intensification even as sea surface temperatures remain supportive. As of September 10, 2026, the basin has produced multiple named storms but zero hurricanes, approaching the satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane formation around September 11. NOAA’s August outlook assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall (2–6 hurricanes), while Colorado State University’s early September two-week forecast strongly favors continued low activity through mid-month due to persistent shear and dry air. These factors underpin the market’s 55% implied probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming in September, with only modest odds assigned to late-month development. Traders are monitoring upcoming National Hurricane Center outlooks and dynamical model runs for any relaxation in shear that could allow rapid organization.

This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".

A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.

The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".

The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026. The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026". The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Volume
$5,072
Data de Término
1 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026. The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026". The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Strong El Niño conditions are sustaining elevated vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, inhibiting tropical cyclogenesis and intensification even as sea surface temperatures remain supportive. As of September 10, 2026, the basin has produced multiple named storms but zero hurricanes, approaching the satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane formation around September 11. NOAA’s August outlook assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall (2–6 hurricanes), while Colorado State University’s early September two-week forecast strongly favors continued low activity through mid-month due to persistent shear and dry air. These factors underpin the market’s 55% implied probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming in September, with only modest odds assigned to late-month development. Traders are monitoring upcoming National Hurricane Center outlooks and dynamical model runs for any relaxation in shear that could allow rapid organization.

This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".

A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.

The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".

The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026. The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026". The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Volume
$5,072
Data de Término
1 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Quando se formará o primeiro furacão no Atlântico em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Nenhum furacão do Atlântico se formará em setembro de 2026" at 55%, followed by "26 a 30 de setembro de 2026" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 55¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Quando se formará o primeiro furacão no Atlântico em 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 4, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Quando se formará o primeiro furacão no Atlântico em 2026?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quando se formará o primeiro furacão no Atlântico em 2026?" is "Nenhum furacão do Atlântico se formará em setembro de 2026" at 55%, meaning the market assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "26 a 30 de setembro de 2026" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quando se formará o primeiro furacão no Atlântico em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.