Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and ESA surveys has detected no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of producing a 1-megaton airburst in 2026, reinforcing the 98.6% market-implied probability of "No." Historical records show events of this scale occur roughly once every few centuries, with the Chelyabinsk meteor's 440-kiloton yield remaining the largest in over a century; smaller bolides detected this year, such as 2026 RW1, released negligible energy. Strong trader consensus reflects verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include discovery of a previously undetected long-period comet entering the inner solar system or rare errors in trajectory or energy calculations, though both face significant observational and technical barriers before year-end resolution.