Persistent low water levels on the Rhine, with key gauges such as Kaub registering around 16 cm on September 21, 2026, and forecasts indicating further drops toward zero by late September, underpin the market's heavy weighting toward delayed recovery. Below-normal precipitation in Alpine headwaters over recent weeks, combined with dry near-term outlooks, has produced the highest count of low-water days in thirty years, severely restricting barge drafts, halting some ferry services, and elevating freight rates. These hydrological conditions, driven by seasonal rainfall deficits rather than short-term events, align with the 57% probability assigned to no return before November and the 41.5% chance of normalization only in October. Recovery typically requires sustained winter inflows or spring snowmelt, leaving limited scope for earlier improvement absent major precipitation shifts.