**Trader consensus in this Starship launch market reflects the program's measured 2026 cadence, with only two successful flights completed through mid-September and Flight 14 now targeting a first orbital profile on September 28 pending final FAA clearance.** Both prior missions (May and July) reached space and demonstrated Starlink V3 deployment and heat-shield performance, yet repeated regulatory reviews, booster relight reliability fixes, and the shift from suborbital to sustained orbital operations have constrained throughput. Expanded FAA operating envelopes and hardware upgrades support gradual progress, but ambitious high-frequency targets remain slated for 2027 alongside new infrastructure still in planning. With roughly three months left and each additional launch requiring incremental safety and licensing gates, market-implied odds favor fewer than five or five-to-six total missions reaching the 62-mile threshold by year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos lançamentos de naves espaciais da SpaceX chegarão ao espaço em 2026?
Quantos lançamentos de naves espaciais da SpaceX chegarão ao espaço em 2026?
<5 58%
5-6 44%
7-8 3.0%
>16 1.3%
$513,812 Vol.
$513,812 Vol.
31 dez 2026
<5
56%
5-6
44%
7-8
3%
9-10
<1%
11-12
1%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
<5 58%
5-6 44%
7-8 3.0%
>16 1.3%
$513,812 Vol.
$513,812 Vol.
31 dez 2026
<5
$102,844 Vol.
56%
5-6
$117,407 Vol.
44%
7-8
$161,675 Vol.
3%
9-10
$63,399 Vol.
<1%
11-12
$10,757 Vol.
1%
13-14
$11,020 Vol.
<1%
15-16
$32,047 Vol.
<1%
>16
$14,663 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus in this Starship launch market reflects the program's measured 2026 cadence, with only two successful flights completed through mid-September and Flight 14 now targeting a first orbital profile on September 28 pending final FAA clearance.** Both prior missions (May and July) reached space and demonstrated Starlink V3 deployment and heat-shield performance, yet repeated regulatory reviews, booster relight reliability fixes, and the shift from suborbital to sustained orbital operations have constrained throughput. Expanded FAA operating envelopes and hardware upgrades support gradual progress, but ambitious high-frequency targets remain slated for 2027 alongside new infrastructure still in planning. With roughly three months left and each additional launch requiring incremental safety and licensing gates, market-implied odds favor fewer than five or five-to-six total missions reaching the 62-mile threshold by year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$513,812Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus in this Starship launch market reflects the program's measured 2026 cadence, with only two successful flights completed through mid-September and Flight 14 now targeting a first orbital profile on September 28 pending final FAA clearance.** Both prior missions (May and July) reached space and demonstrated Starlink V3 deployment and heat-shield performance, yet repeated regulatory reviews, booster relight reliability fixes, and the shift from suborbital to sustained orbital operations have constrained throughput. Expanded FAA operating envelopes and hardware upgrades support gradual progress, but ambitious high-frequency targets remain slated for 2027 alongside new infrastructure still in planning. With roughly three months left and each additional launch requiring incremental safety and licensing gates, market-implied odds favor fewer than five or five-to-six total missions reaching the 62-mile threshold by year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$513,812Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus in this Starship launch market reflects the program's measured 2026 cadence, with only two successful flights completed through mid-September and Flight 14 now targeting a first orbital profile on September 28 pending final FAA clearance.** Both prior missions (May and July) reached space and demonstrated Starlink V3 deployment and heat-shield performance, yet repeated regulatory reviews, booster relight reliability fixes, and the shift from suborbital to sustained orbital operations have constrained throughput. Expanded FAA operating envelopes and hardware upgrades support gradual progress, but ambitious high-frequency targets remain slated for 2027 alongside new infrastructure still in planning. With roughly three months left and each additional launch requiring incremental safety and licensing gates, market-implied odds favor fewer than five or five-to-six total missions reaching the 62-mile threshold by year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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