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icon for Aterragem humana na Lua em 2026?
Tecnologia·Cultura

Aterragem humana na Lua em 2026?

icon for Aterragem humana na Lua em 2026?
Tecnologia·Cultura

Aterragem humana na Lua em 2026?

Sim

2% chance
Polymarket

$1,968,706 Vol.

Sim

2% chance
Polymarket

$1,968,706 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA’s Artemis program, the primary vehicle for a potential U.S. crewed lunar landing, has shifted its first surface mission from Artemis III to Artemis IV, now targeted no earlier than 2028 after recent replanning. Artemis II completed its crewed lunar flyby in April 2026, but Artemis III was reconfigured as a 2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration of commercial Human Landing Systems from SpaceX and Blue Origin. Persistent delays in Starship HLS development, Blue Origin hardware setbacks, and SLS production constraints have pushed timelines back, while China’s crewed lunar goals remain set before 2030 with no 2026 capability. Trader consensus at 98.2% for “No” reflects these verified schedule realities, though an unforeseen acceleration in multiple parallel programs could theoretically compress timelines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,968,706
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA’s Artemis program, the primary vehicle for a potential U.S. crewed lunar landing, has shifted its first surface mission from Artemis III to Artemis IV, now targeted no earlier than 2028 after recent replanning. Artemis II completed its crewed lunar flyby in April 2026, but Artemis III was reconfigured as a 2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration of commercial Human Landing Systems from SpaceX and Blue Origin. Persistent delays in Starship HLS development, Blue Origin hardware setbacks, and SLS production constraints have pushed timelines back, while China’s crewed lunar goals remain set before 2030 with no 2026 capability. Trader consensus at 98.2% for “No” reflects these verified schedule realities, though an unforeseen acceleration in multiple parallel programs could theoretically compress timelines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,968,706
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Aterragem humana na Lua em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Pouso humano na Lua em 2026?" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 2¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 2% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Aterragem humana na Lua em 2026?" has generated $2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Aterragem humana na Lua em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Aterragem humana na Lua em 2026?" is "Pouso humano na Lua em 2026?" at just 2%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Aterragem humana na Lua em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.