Skip to main content

Para negociar nos EUA, acesse polymarket.us

icon for Desastre natural em 2026?
Clima E Ciência·Parlays

Desastre natural em 2026?

icon for Desastre natural em 2026?
Clima E Ciência·Parlays

Desastre natural em 2026?

Sim

20% chance
Polymarket

$246,739 Vol.

Sim

20% chance
Polymarket

$246,739 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf No qualifying events have occurred through mid-September 2026, keeping trader consensus on “No” near 80%. None of the four resolution thresholds—a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—have been met despite multiple smaller quakes (including a 7.7 in Indonesia and 7.2–7.5 pair in Venezuela) and ongoing seasonal activity. The developing El Niño, now forecast by the WMO to strengthen rapidly, raises the chance of late-season Atlantic intensification and extreme weather, yet historical frequencies of these rare extremes remain low. NOAA and NHC model runs plus USGS seismic monitoring through year-end will determine whether any threshold is crossed before December 31.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:

- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$246,739
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf No qualifying events have occurred through mid-September 2026, keeping trader consensus on “No” near 80%. None of the four resolution thresholds—a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—have been met despite multiple smaller quakes (including a 7.7 in Indonesia and 7.2–7.5 pair in Venezuela) and ongoing seasonal activity. The developing El Niño, now forecast by the WMO to strengthen rapidly, raises the chance of late-season Atlantic intensification and extreme weather, yet historical frequencies of these rare extremes remain low. NOAA and NHC model runs plus USGS seismic monitoring through year-end will determine whether any threshold is crossed before December 31.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:

- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$246,739
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Relacionado

icon for Nada Nunca Acontece: 2026

Nada Nunca Acontece: 2026

83%
Sim
icon for Haverá 1 terremoto de magnitude 6,5 ou superior no mundo?

Haverá 1 terremoto de magnitude 6,5 ou superior no mundo?

89%
Sim
icon for Haverá ≤6 terremotos de magnitude 5,5 ou superior no mundo?

Haverá ≤6 terremotos de magnitude 5,5 ou superior no mundo?

99%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Desastre natural em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Desastre natural em 2026?" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 20¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 20% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Desastre natural em 2026?" has generated $246.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 31, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Desastre natural em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Desastre natural em 2026?" is "Desastre natural em 2026?" at 20%, meaning the market assigns a 20% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Desastre natural em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.