Recent preliminary reports place the 2026 U.S. tornado total above 1,400 through early September, well ahead of the typical pace and supporting strong trader consensus around a 1,250-plus finish. Elevated spring and early-summer activity, including an Illinois total already exceeding 200, has driven the surge, consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions favoring more frequent tornado-favorable patterns across the Midwest and Plains. An emerging El Niño may increase late-season wind shear and modestly suppress autumn and winter counts, yet the year-to-date surplus leaves little room for the annual figure to fall below 1,250. NOAA Storm Prediction Center data and ongoing National Weather Service surveys will continue to refine counts ahead of final verification.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos Tornados nos EUA em 2026?
Quantos Tornados nos EUA em 2026?
1250+ 89%
1200–1249 5.2%
1150–1199 4.5%
1100–1149 2.8%
$82,166 Vol.
$82,166 Vol.
9 jan 2027
<950
1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
1%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
5%
1200–1249
5%
1250+
89%
1250+ 89%
1200–1249 5.2%
1150–1199 4.5%
1100–1149 2.8%
$82,166 Vol.
$82,166 Vol.
9 jan 2027
<950
$23,728 Vol.
1%
950–999
$3,621 Vol.
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 Vol.
<1%
1050–1099
$9,172 Vol.
1%
1100–1149
$3,254 Vol.
3%
1150–1199
$4,082 Vol.
5%
1200–1249
$15,917 Vol.
5%
1250+
$18,941 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent preliminary reports place the 2026 U.S. tornado total above 1,400 through early September, well ahead of the typical pace and supporting strong trader consensus around a 1,250-plus finish. Elevated spring and early-summer activity, including an Illinois total already exceeding 200, has driven the surge, consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions favoring more frequent tornado-favorable patterns across the Midwest and Plains. An emerging El Niño may increase late-season wind shear and modestly suppress autumn and winter counts, yet the year-to-date surplus leaves little room for the annual figure to fall below 1,250. NOAA Storm Prediction Center data and ongoing National Weather Service surveys will continue to refine counts ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volume
$82,166Data de Término
10 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent preliminary reports place the 2026 U.S. tornado total above 1,400 through early September, well ahead of the typical pace and supporting strong trader consensus around a 1,250-plus finish. Elevated spring and early-summer activity, including an Illinois total already exceeding 200, has driven the surge, consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions favoring more frequent tornado-favorable patterns across the Midwest and Plains. An emerging El Niño may increase late-season wind shear and modestly suppress autumn and winter counts, yet the year-to-date surplus leaves little room for the annual figure to fall below 1,250. NOAA Storm Prediction Center data and ongoing National Weather Service surveys will continue to refine counts ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$82,166Data de Término
10 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent preliminary reports place the 2026 U.S. tornado total above 1,400 through early September, well ahead of the typical pace and supporting strong trader consensus around a 1,250-plus finish. Elevated spring and early-summer activity, including an Illinois total already exceeding 200, has driven the surge, consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions favoring more frequent tornado-favorable patterns across the Midwest and Plains. An emerging El Niño may increase late-season wind shear and modestly suppress autumn and winter counts, yet the year-to-date surplus leaves little room for the annual figure to fall below 1,250. NOAA Storm Prediction Center data and ongoing National Weather Service surveys will continue to refine counts ahead of final verification.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions