Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor since March 2026 following Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, leads the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial race with broad center-right coalition backing and improving approval ratings. Recent Datafolha polling (September 8–11) showed her at 40% in the first-round scenario, ahead of José Roberto Arruda (PSD) at 17% and Leandro Grass (PT) at 16%, with smaller shares for Paula Belmonte, Ricardo Cappelli, Kiko Caputo, and others. Arruda’s candidacy faces pending TSE eligibility review, while Leão’s position benefits from incumbency, recent poll gains, and a consolidated base ahead of the October 4 first round. Trader consensus reflects these dynamics, with low probabilities assigned to challengers absent major late shifts in voter preferences or legal outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Celina Leão 83%
Arruda 8.6%
Leandro Grass 2.9%
Elisson <1%
$16,738 Vol.
$16,738 Vol.
2026/10/04
Celina Leão
83%
Arruda
9%
Leandro Grass
3%
Elisson
1%
Paula Belmonte
<1%
Professor Robson
<1%
Expedito Mendonça
<1%
Kiko Caputo
<1%
Cappelli
<1%
Professora Samara Mineiro
<1%
Celina Leão 83%
Arruda 8.6%
Leandro Grass 2.9%
Elisson <1%
$16,738 Vol.
$16,738 Vol.
2026/10/04
Celina Leão
$9,582 Vol.
83%
Arruda
$1,928 Vol.
9%
Leandro Grass
$1,573 Vol.
3%
Elisson
$543 Vol.
1%
Paula Belmonte
$531 Vol.
<1%
Professor Robson
$530 Vol.
<1%
Expedito Mendonça
$541 Vol.
<1%
Kiko Caputo
$490 Vol.
<1%
Cappelli
$531 Vol.
<1%
Professora Samara Mineiro
$490 Vol.
<1%
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor since March 2026 following Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, leads the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial race with broad center-right coalition backing and improving approval ratings. Recent Datafolha polling (September 8–11) showed her at 40% in the first-round scenario, ahead of José Roberto Arruda (PSD) at 17% and Leandro Grass (PT) at 16%, with smaller shares for Paula Belmonte, Ricardo Cappelli, Kiko Caputo, and others. Arruda’s candidacy faces pending TSE eligibility review, while Leão’s position benefits from incumbency, recent poll gains, and a consolidated base ahead of the October 4 first round. Trader consensus reflects these dynamics, with low probabilities assigned to challengers absent major late shifts in voter preferences or legal outcomes.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ET
音量
$16,738終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor since March 2026 following Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, leads the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial race with broad center-right coalition backing and improving approval ratings. Recent Datafolha polling (September 8–11) showed her at 40% in the first-round scenario, ahead of José Roberto Arruda (PSD) at 17% and Leandro Grass (PT) at 16%, with smaller shares for Paula Belmonte, Ricardo Cappelli, Kiko Caputo, and others. Arruda’s candidacy faces pending TSE eligibility review, while Leão’s position benefits from incumbency, recent poll gains, and a consolidated base ahead of the October 4 first round. Trader consensus reflects these dynamics, with low probabilities assigned to challengers absent major late shifts in voter preferences or legal outcomes.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$16,738終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor since March 2026 following Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, leads the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial race with broad center-right coalition backing and improving approval ratings. Recent Datafolha polling (September 8–11) showed her at 40% in the first-round scenario, ahead of José Roberto Arruda (PSD) at 17% and Leandro Grass (PT) at 16%, with smaller shares for Paula Belmonte, Ricardo Cappelli, Kiko Caputo, and others. Arruda’s candidacy faces pending TSE eligibility review, while Leão’s position benefits from incumbency, recent poll gains, and a consolidated base ahead of the October 4 first round. Trader consensus reflects these dynamics, with low probabilities assigned to challengers absent major late shifts in voter preferences or legal outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問