**Recent polling shows a tight contest among top contenders for the two São Paulo Senate seats on October 4, 2026, with each voter selecting up to two candidates.** A September 8 Quaest survey placed Marina Silva (Rede) and Guilherme Derrite (PP) tied at 14%, Simone Tebet (PSB) at 12%, André do Prado (PL) at 7%, and Ricardo Salles (Novo) at 3%, amid roughly 45% undecided or blank/null responses. Earlier Datafolha and Quaest releases from July–August reflected similar clustering within margins of error. Marina Silva and Simone Tebet run on the “Desperta São Paulo” coalition tied to Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial bid, drawing support from PT-aligned and center-left voters. Derrite (PP) and Prado (PL) represent the Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) grouping, emphasizing security and state-government alignment. Salles campaigns more independently on the right. The two-vote system, elevated indecision, and polarized national alignments have sustained the close positioning for second place. Trader pricing reflects this balance, with modest recent shifts following the start of free broadcast time in late August. Further separation would likely require clearer polling trends, major endorsements, debates, or late developments altering visibility or turnout among key blocs before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日アンドレ・ド・プラド 39.3%
マリナ・シルバ 25%
シモーネ・テベチ 15%
ギリェルメ・デリッチ 14%
$45,362 Vol.
$45,362 Vol.
アンドレ・ド・プラド
42%
マリナ・シルバ
25%
シモーネ・テベチ
15%
ギリェルメ・デリッチ
14%
サレス
2%
マルシオ・アルヴェス
1%
エドネルソン・セザレッティ
<1%
ジェラウド・ルフィーノ
<1%
ペッター・マース
<1%
ウェラー・ゴンサウヴェス
<1%
ウィリアム・テイシェイラ
<1%
エリアナ・フェレイラ博士
<1%
マイラ・デ・ソウザ
<1%
ソニーニャ・フランシーニ
<1%
アンドレ・ド・プラド 39.3%
マリナ・シルバ 25%
シモーネ・テベチ 15%
ギリェルメ・デリッチ 14%
$45,362 Vol.
$45,362 Vol.
アンドレ・ド・プラド
42%
マリナ・シルバ
25%
シモーネ・テベチ
15%
ギリェルメ・デリッチ
14%
サレス
2%
マルシオ・アルヴェス
1%
エドネルソン・セザレッティ
<1%
ジェラウド・ルフィーノ
<1%
ペッター・マース
<1%
ウェラー・ゴンサウヴェス
<1%
ウィリアム・テイシェイラ
<1%
エリアナ・フェレイラ博士
<1%
マイラ・デ・ソウザ
<1%
ソニーニャ・フランシーニ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling shows a tight contest among top contenders for the two São Paulo Senate seats on October 4, 2026, with each voter selecting up to two candidates.** A September 8 Quaest survey placed Marina Silva (Rede) and Guilherme Derrite (PP) tied at 14%, Simone Tebet (PSB) at 12%, André do Prado (PL) at 7%, and Ricardo Salles (Novo) at 3%, amid roughly 45% undecided or blank/null responses. Earlier Datafolha and Quaest releases from July–August reflected similar clustering within margins of error. Marina Silva and Simone Tebet run on the “Desperta São Paulo” coalition tied to Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial bid, drawing support from PT-aligned and center-left voters. Derrite (PP) and Prado (PL) represent the Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) grouping, emphasizing security and state-government alignment. Salles campaigns more independently on the right. The two-vote system, elevated indecision, and polarized national alignments have sustained the close positioning for second place. Trader pricing reflects this balance, with modest recent shifts following the start of free broadcast time in late August. Further separation would likely require clearer polling trends, major endorsements, debates, or late developments altering visibility or turnout among key blocs before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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