Lula’s campaign has consistently declined to confirm participation in scheduled presidential debates ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first round, prompting the cancellation of the September 14 consortium debate organized by eleven media outlets after the September 7 deadline passed without a response. The president previously skipped the August 23 Band debate, and his public remarks have emphasized reluctance to engage formats he views as unproductive. Flávio Bolsonaro has similarly conditioned his attendance on Lula’s presence, reinforcing the pattern. Remaining debates on September 27 (Record) and October 1 (Globo) face the same uncertainty, with no official reversal from the PT campaign as of early September. These developments underpin traders’ 65% probability that Lula will not appear in any debate before voting.