Renan Santos, the Mission Party candidate in Brazil’s 2026 presidential race, has already participated in the August 23 Band debate alongside Ronaldo Caiado and Augusto Cury and maintains formal registration following the lifting of a brief September 1 TSE restriction on campaign activities, including debates. Traders assign 96% probability to further live televised participation before the October 3 first-round cutoff because his campaign continues active media outreach, polling visibility in single digits sustains incentives for visibility events, and no new legal barriers have emerged. Scheduled encounters or parallel formats remain possible within the resolution window. Late developments that could still shift the outcome include fresh TSE rulings, candidate health issues, or widespread withdrawals that eliminate qualifying partners for a multi-candidate broadcast.