Lula holds an 83.5% implied probability as first-round winner in the October 4, 2026, Brazilian presidential election, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 16%, with other candidates at 0.1–6.6% in recent surveys. Multiple polls from Quaest, Datafolha, Meio/Ideia, and Nexus through early September show the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate leading first-round intentions in the mid-to-high 30s percent, while Flávio trails in the low-to-mid 30s and minor candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos remain in single digits. The right-wing vote continues to fragment across several registered contenders, preserving Lula’s plurality advantage even as runoff simulations tighten to near parity. Campaign activity, including candidate registrations finalized in August and ongoing advertising, has not altered this first-round structure. Traders price in the structural edge from incumbency and vote splitting ahead of the October 4 ballot.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ルラ 82%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 16%
レナン・サントス <1%
ロナウド・カイアド <1%
$44,966 Vol.
$44,966 Vol.
2026/10/04
ルラ
82%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
16%
レナン・サントス
<1%
ロナウド・カイアド
<1%
作家アウグスト・クーリ
<1%
ルイ・コスタ・ピメンタ
<1%
クラリアナ・バラオ
<1%
ヘルツ・ディアス
<1%
サマラ
<1%
獣医ウィルソン・グラッシ
<1%
エジミルソン・コスタ
<1%
ゼマ
<1%
パブロ・マルサル
<1%
ルラ 82%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 16%
レナン・サントス <1%
ロナウド・カイアド <1%
$44,966 Vol.
$44,966 Vol.
2026/10/04
ルラ
$15,574 Vol.
82%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
$13,141 Vol.
16%
レナン・サントス
$4,462 Vol.
<1%
ロナウド・カイアド
$4,126 Vol.
<1%
作家アウグスト・クーリ
$3,997 Vol.
<1%
ルイ・コスタ・ピメンタ
$477 Vol.
<1%
クラリアナ・バラオ
$288 Vol.
<1%
ヘルツ・ディアス
$296 Vol.
<1%
サマラ
$296 Vol.
<1%
獣医ウィルソン・グラッシ
$316 Vol.
<1%
エジミルソン・コスタ
$259 Vol.
<1%
ゼマ
$546 Vol.
<1%
パブロ・マルサル
$1,189 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds an 83.5% implied probability as first-round winner in the October 4, 2026, Brazilian presidential election, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 16%, with other candidates at 0.1–6.6% in recent surveys. Multiple polls from Quaest, Datafolha, Meio/Ideia, and Nexus through early September show the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate leading first-round intentions in the mid-to-high 30s percent, while Flávio trails in the low-to-mid 30s and minor candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos remain in single digits. The right-wing vote continues to fragment across several registered contenders, preserving Lula’s plurality advantage even as runoff simulations tighten to near parity. Campaign activity, including candidate registrations finalized in August and ongoing advertising, has not altered this first-round structure. Traders price in the structural edge from incumbency and vote splitting ahead of the October 4 ballot.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET
音量
$44,966終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds an 83.5% implied probability as first-round winner in the October 4, 2026, Brazilian presidential election, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 16%, with other candidates at 0.1–6.6% in recent surveys. Multiple polls from Quaest, Datafolha, Meio/Ideia, and Nexus through early September show the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate leading first-round intentions in the mid-to-high 30s percent, while Flávio trails in the low-to-mid 30s and minor candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos remain in single digits. The right-wing vote continues to fragment across several registered contenders, preserving Lula’s plurality advantage even as runoff simulations tighten to near parity. Campaign activity, including candidate registrations finalized in August and ongoing advertising, has not altered this first-round structure. Traders price in the structural edge from incumbency and vote splitting ahead of the October 4 ballot.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$44,966終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ETLula holds an 83.5% implied probability as first-round winner in the October 4, 2026, Brazilian presidential election, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 16%, with other candidates at 0.1–6.6% in recent surveys. Multiple polls from Quaest, Datafolha, Meio/Ideia, and Nexus through early September show the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate leading first-round intentions in the mid-to-high 30s percent, while Flávio trails in the low-to-mid 30s and minor candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos remain in single digits. The right-wing vote continues to fragment across several registered contenders, preserving Lula’s plurality advantage even as runoff simulations tighten to near parity. Campaign activity, including candidate registrations finalized in August and ongoing advertising, has not altered this first-round structure. Traders price in the structural edge from incumbency and vote splitting ahead of the October 4 ballot.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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