Sergio Moro (PL) holds a commanding position in the Paraná gubernatorial race due to consistent first-round polling leads of 44–49% in mid-September surveys, well ahead of Requião Filho (PDT) at 23–28% and Sandro Alex (PSD) at 15–20%. The open contest, created by term limits barring incumbent Ratinho Junior from a third consecutive bid, has allowed Moro’s high name recognition from his Lava Jato judicial role and Senate tenure to translate into broad voter support. Recent campaign events, including carreatas across the Curitiba metro area, have reinforced momentum while opponents compete for second place. Trader consensus assigns Moro an 82.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting his margin in head-to-head runoff simulations and the limited traction of lower-polling names such as Sandro Alex. The October 4 first round remains the key near-term catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日セルジオ・モロ 83%
サンドロ・アレックス 16%
レキアン・フィーリョ 2.3%
ラファエル・グレカ <1%
$186,278 Vol.
$186,278 Vol.
2026/10/04
セルジオ・モロ
83%
サンドロ・アレックス
16%
レキアン・フィーリョ
2%
ラファエル・グレカ
<1%
グト・シウヴァ
<1%
アレクサンドレ・クリ
<1%
ベト・リシャ
<1%
エニオ・ヴェッリ
<1%
ルイス・フランサ
<1%
セルジオ・モロ 83%
サンドロ・アレックス 16%
レキアン・フィーリョ 2.3%
ラファエル・グレカ <1%
$186,278 Vol.
$186,278 Vol.
2026/10/04
セルジオ・モロ
$121,786 Vol.
83%
サンドロ・アレックス
$18,369 Vol.
16%
レキアン・フィーリョ
$22,411 Vol.
2%
ラファエル・グレカ
$3,403 Vol.
<1%
グト・シウヴァ
$3,022 Vol.
<1%
アレクサンドレ・クリ
$5,452 Vol.
<1%
ベト・リシャ
$2,625 Vol.
<1%
エニオ・ヴェッリ
$3,396 Vol.
<1%
ルイス・フランサ
$5,812 Vol.
<1%
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sergio Moro (PL) holds a commanding position in the Paraná gubernatorial race due to consistent first-round polling leads of 44–49% in mid-September surveys, well ahead of Requião Filho (PDT) at 23–28% and Sandro Alex (PSD) at 15–20%. The open contest, created by term limits barring incumbent Ratinho Junior from a third consecutive bid, has allowed Moro’s high name recognition from his Lava Jato judicial role and Senate tenure to translate into broad voter support. Recent campaign events, including carreatas across the Curitiba metro area, have reinforced momentum while opponents compete for second place. Trader consensus assigns Moro an 82.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting his margin in head-to-head runoff simulations and the limited traction of lower-polling names such as Sandro Alex. The October 4 first round remains the key near-term catalyst.
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
音量
$186,278終了日
2026/10/05マーケット開始日
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sergio Moro (PL) holds a commanding position in the Paraná gubernatorial race due to consistent first-round polling leads of 44–49% in mid-September surveys, well ahead of Requião Filho (PDT) at 23–28% and Sandro Alex (PSD) at 15–20%. The open contest, created by term limits barring incumbent Ratinho Junior from a third consecutive bid, has allowed Moro’s high name recognition from his Lava Jato judicial role and Senate tenure to translate into broad voter support. Recent campaign events, including carreatas across the Curitiba metro area, have reinforced momentum while opponents compete for second place. Trader consensus assigns Moro an 82.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting his margin in head-to-head runoff simulations and the limited traction of lower-polling names such as Sandro Alex. The October 4 first round remains the key near-term catalyst.
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$186,278終了日
2026/10/05マーケット開始日
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Sergio Moro (PL) holds a commanding position in the Paraná gubernatorial race due to consistent first-round polling leads of 44–49% in mid-September surveys, well ahead of Requião Filho (PDT) at 23–28% and Sandro Alex (PSD) at 15–20%. The open contest, created by term limits barring incumbent Ratinho Junior from a third consecutive bid, has allowed Moro’s high name recognition from his Lava Jato judicial role and Senate tenure to translate into broad voter support. Recent campaign events, including carreatas across the Curitiba metro area, have reinforced momentum while opponents compete for second place. Trader consensus assigns Moro an 82.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting his margin in head-to-head runoff simulations and the limited traction of lower-polling names such as Sandro Alex. The October 4 first round remains the key near-term catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問