**Provisional Met Office data released on 1 September 2026 shows summer 2026 (June–August) with a UK mean temperature of 16.5 °C, 0.4 °C above the 2025 record and 1.9 °C above the 1991–2020 average.** This margin, driven by repeated heatwaves, record daily maxima (including 38.1 °C at Kew Gardens), and an unprecedented 55 days above 28 °C, underpins the 97 % market-implied probability for “Yes.” Climate attribution analysis indicates human-induced warming made such warmth roughly 130 times more likely than in a pre-industrial climate. The top five warmest UK summers now all post-date 2003. Final verification of station data could produce minor adjustments, but the current 0.4 °C lead makes reversal improbable absent substantial downward revision.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'estate 2026 sarà l'estate più calda mai registrata nel Regno Unito?
L'estate 2026 sarà l'estate più calda mai registrata nel Regno Unito?
97% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 set 2026
97% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 set 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.**Provisional Met Office data released on 1 September 2026 shows summer 2026 (June–August) with a UK mean temperature of 16.5 °C, 0.4 °C above the 2025 record and 1.9 °C above the 1991–2020 average.** This margin, driven by repeated heatwaves, record daily maxima (including 38.1 °C at Kew Gardens), and an unprecedented 55 days above 28 °C, underpins the 97 % market-implied probability for “Yes.” Climate attribution analysis indicates human-induced warming made such warmth roughly 130 times more likely than in a pre-industrial climate. The top five warmest UK summers now all post-date 2003.
Final verification of station data could produce minor adjustments, but the current 0.4 °C lead makes reversal improbable absent substantial downward revision.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Volume
$1,549Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.**Provisional Met Office data released on 1 September 2026 shows summer 2026 (June–August) with a UK mean temperature of 16.5 °C, 0.4 °C above the 2025 record and 1.9 °C above the 1991–2020 average.** This margin, driven by repeated heatwaves, record daily maxima (including 38.1 °C at Kew Gardens), and an unprecedented 55 days above 28 °C, underpins the 97 % market-implied probability for “Yes.” Climate attribution analysis indicates human-induced warming made such warmth roughly 130 times more likely than in a pre-industrial climate. The top five warmest UK summers now all post-date 2003.
Final verification of station data could produce minor adjustments, but the current 0.4 °C lead makes reversal improbable absent substantial downward revision.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,549Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**Provisional Met Office data released on 1 September 2026 shows summer 2026 (June–August) with a UK mean temperature of 16.5 °C, 0.4 °C above the 2025 record and 1.9 °C above the 1991–2020 average.** This margin, driven by repeated heatwaves, record daily maxima (including 38.1 °C at Kew Gardens), and an unprecedented 55 days above 28 °C, underpins the 97 % market-implied probability for “Yes.” Climate attribution analysis indicates human-induced warming made such warmth roughly 130 times more likely than in a pre-industrial climate. The top five warmest UK summers now all post-date 2003. Final verification of station data could produce minor adjustments, but the current 0.4 °C lead makes reversal improbable absent substantial downward revision.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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