**Strong scientific consensus from multiple datasets supports the market's overwhelming 99.4% implied probability on >1.29°C for August 2026.** Analyses from Copernicus ERA5 and climatologists such as Zeke Hausfather place the global mean surface temperature anomaly at approximately 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels—the highest August on record and exceeding the prior 2024 benchmark by about 0.14°C. This outcome stems from decades of anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing amplified by a rapidly strengthening El Niño, which drove record ocean heat content (daily extra-polar SST peaking at 21.1°C) and elevated atmospheric moisture. Official monitoring from agencies like NOAA and ECMWF, alongside tropospheric and surface records, confirms the month ranked among the warmest in the instrumental era. Realistic challenges remain limited but include potential late revisions in final gridded datasets or shifts in baseline definitions, though the margin above 1.29°C makes such adjustments improbable. Ongoing El Niño intensification and model consensus on sustained warmth through late 2026 further anchor trader positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAgosto 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
Agosto 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
>1,29ºC 99.4%
1,20–1,24ºC <1%
1,25–1,29ºC <1%
<1,10ºC <1%
$14,173 Vol.
$14,173 Vol.
31 lug 2026
<1,10ºC
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
<1%
1,15–1,19ºC
<1%
1,20–1,24ºC
1%
1,25–1,29ºC
1%
>1,29ºC
99%
>1,29ºC 99.4%
1,20–1,24ºC <1%
1,25–1,29ºC <1%
<1,10ºC <1%
$14,173 Vol.
$14,173 Vol.
31 lug 2026
<1,10ºC
$877 Vol.
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
$999 Vol.
<1%
1,15–1,19ºC
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
1,20–1,24ºC
$2,099 Vol.
1%
1,25–1,29ºC
$2,783 Vol.
1%
>1,29ºC
$6,294 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Strong scientific consensus from multiple datasets supports the market's overwhelming 99.4% implied probability on >1.29°C for August 2026.** Analyses from Copernicus ERA5 and climatologists such as Zeke Hausfather place the global mean surface temperature anomaly at approximately 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels—the highest August on record and exceeding the prior 2024 benchmark by about 0.14°C. This outcome stems from decades of anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing amplified by a rapidly strengthening El Niño, which drove record ocean heat content (daily extra-polar SST peaking at 21.1°C) and elevated atmospheric moisture. Official monitoring from agencies like NOAA and ECMWF, alongside tropospheric and surface records, confirms the month ranked among the warmest in the instrumental era.
Realistic challenges remain limited but include potential late revisions in final gridded datasets or shifts in baseline definitions, though the margin above 1.29°C makes such adjustments improbable. Ongoing El Niño intensification and model consensus on sustained warmth through late 2026 further anchor trader positioning.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$14,173Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Strong scientific consensus from multiple datasets supports the market's overwhelming 99.4% implied probability on >1.29°C for August 2026.** Analyses from Copernicus ERA5 and climatologists such as Zeke Hausfather place the global mean surface temperature anomaly at approximately 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels—the highest August on record and exceeding the prior 2024 benchmark by about 0.14°C. This outcome stems from decades of anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing amplified by a rapidly strengthening El Niño, which drove record ocean heat content (daily extra-polar SST peaking at 21.1°C) and elevated atmospheric moisture. Official monitoring from agencies like NOAA and ECMWF, alongside tropospheric and surface records, confirms the month ranked among the warmest in the instrumental era.
Realistic challenges remain limited but include potential late revisions in final gridded datasets or shifts in baseline definitions, though the margin above 1.29°C makes such adjustments improbable. Ongoing El Niño intensification and model consensus on sustained warmth through late 2026 further anchor trader positioning.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$14,173Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Strong scientific consensus from multiple datasets supports the market's overwhelming 99.4% implied probability on >1.29°C for August 2026.** Analyses from Copernicus ERA5 and climatologists such as Zeke Hausfather place the global mean surface temperature anomaly at approximately 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels—the highest August on record and exceeding the prior 2024 benchmark by about 0.14°C. This outcome stems from decades of anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing amplified by a rapidly strengthening El Niño, which drove record ocean heat content (daily extra-polar SST peaking at 21.1°C) and elevated atmospheric moisture. Official monitoring from agencies like NOAA and ECMWF, alongside tropospheric and surface records, confirms the month ranked among the warmest in the instrumental era. Realistic challenges remain limited but include potential late revisions in final gridded datasets or shifts in baseline definitions, though the margin above 1.29°C makes such adjustments improbable. Ongoing El Niño intensification and model consensus on sustained warmth through late 2026 further anchor trader positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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