Strong containment measures, limited cross-border transmission, and the regional nature of the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo underpin traders' 97% confidence against an Ebola pandemic in 2026. As of late August, WHO and DRC health ministry data report roughly 5,800–6,600 confirmed cases and 2,800–3,000 deaths concentrated in eastern provinces, with smaller imported clusters in Uganda and one case in France now resolved after enhanced monitoring periods. The virus's documented lower human-to-human transmissibility compared with prior strains, combined with contact-tracing shortfalls offset by international surveillance and low intercontinental export risk (historically under 1 case per 1,000 African cases), supports the market-implied odds. Realistic shifts could arise from undetected community spread or a mutation boosting airborne potential, though current epidemiological indicators show no such trajectory.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
3% probabilità
$759,602 Vol.
$759,602 Vol.
31 dic 2026
3% probabilità
$759,602 Vol.
$759,602 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong containment measures, limited cross-border transmission, and the regional nature of the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo underpin traders' 97% confidence against an Ebola pandemic in 2026. As of late August, WHO and DRC health ministry data report roughly 5,800–6,600 confirmed cases and 2,800–3,000 deaths concentrated in eastern provinces, with smaller imported clusters in Uganda and one case in France now resolved after enhanced monitoring periods. The virus's documented lower human-to-human transmissibility compared with prior strains, combined with contact-tracing shortfalls offset by international surveillance and low intercontinental export risk (historically under 1 case per 1,000 African cases), supports the market-implied odds. Realistic shifts could arise from undetected community spread or a mutation boosting airborne potential, though current epidemiological indicators show no such trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$759,602Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong containment measures, limited cross-border transmission, and the regional nature of the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo underpin traders' 97% confidence against an Ebola pandemic in 2026. As of late August, WHO and DRC health ministry data report roughly 5,800–6,600 confirmed cases and 2,800–3,000 deaths concentrated in eastern provinces, with smaller imported clusters in Uganda and one case in France now resolved after enhanced monitoring periods. The virus's documented lower human-to-human transmissibility compared with prior strains, combined with contact-tracing shortfalls offset by international surveillance and low intercontinental export risk (historically under 1 case per 1,000 African cases), supports the market-implied odds. Realistic shifts could arise from undetected community spread or a mutation boosting airborne potential, though current epidemiological indicators show no such trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$759,602Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Strong containment measures, limited cross-border transmission, and the regional nature of the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo underpin traders' 97% confidence against an Ebola pandemic in 2026. As of late August, WHO and DRC health ministry data report roughly 5,800–6,600 confirmed cases and 2,800–3,000 deaths concentrated in eastern provinces, with smaller imported clusters in Uganda and one case in France now resolved after enhanced monitoring periods. The virus's documented lower human-to-human transmissibility compared with prior strains, combined with contact-tracing shortfalls offset by international surveillance and low intercontinental export risk (historically under 1 case per 1,000 African cases), supports the market-implied odds. Realistic shifts could arise from undetected community spread or a mutation boosting airborne potential, though current epidemiological indicators show no such trajectory.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti