**The strong market consensus favoring no new pandemic in 2026 reflects the primarily regional character of the ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.** Declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in May 2026, it has produced over 5,400 confirmed cases and roughly 2,600 deaths by late August, marking it the second-largest Ebola event on record and the fastest-growing for that strain. Transmission remains limited to direct contact with bodily fluids, with cases concentrated in six DRC provinces and limited spillover into Uganda. European and U.S. authorities assess importation risk as very low, supported by post-COVID enhancements in surveillance, the 2025 Pandemic Agreement, and broad population immunity that has kept COVID-19 surges mild with minimal hospitalizations. Realistic challenges include accelerated cross-border spread of Bundibugyo or emergence of an undetected novel pathogen, both of which continue to be monitored through official reporting channels.