Recent monthly volatility in U.S. goods and services trade data, including the July 2026 widening to an $88.6 billion deficit from $73.3 billion in June amid rising imports and softer exports, underpins the tight contest between the 800–900 billion and 700–800 billion full-year outcomes at 42.0% and 40.5% implied probability. Persistent tariff policies, including Section 301 measures and sectoral duties, have driven earlier 2026 narrowing relative to 2025 levels through import substitution and supply-chain adjustments, yet elevated imports of capital goods and semiconductors alongside policy uncertainty continue to pressure the annual total. With the 12-month running deficit near $744 billion through July, trader consensus reflects balanced views on whether year-end momentum sustains the lower band or shifts higher, ahead of the August release and remaining quarterly economic data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$24,044 Vol.
$24,044 Vol.
27 févr. 2027
<500 Md$
3%
500–600 milliards
5%
600–700 milliards
10%
700–800 milliards
39%
800–900 milliards
42%
900 Md – 1 Bn
13%
1T–1,1T
5%
1,1 T+
4%
$24,044 Vol.
$24,044 Vol.
27 févr. 2027
<500 Md$
$16,854 Vol.
3%
500–600 milliards
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700 milliards
$543 Vol.
10%
700–800 milliards
$670 Vol.
39%
800–900 milliards
$1,529 Vol.
42%
900 Md – 1 Bn
$1,407 Vol.
13%
1T–1,1T
$1,468 Vol.
5%
1,1 T+
$1,119 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly volatility in U.S. goods and services trade data, including the July 2026 widening to an $88.6 billion deficit from $73.3 billion in June amid rising imports and softer exports, underpins the tight contest between the 800–900 billion and 700–800 billion full-year outcomes at 42.0% and 40.5% implied probability. Persistent tariff policies, including Section 301 measures and sectoral duties, have driven earlier 2026 narrowing relative to 2025 levels through import substitution and supply-chain adjustments, yet elevated imports of capital goods and semiconductors alongside policy uncertainty continue to pressure the annual total. With the 12-month running deficit near $744 billion through July, trader consensus reflects balanced views on whether year-end momentum sustains the lower band or shifts higher, ahead of the August release and remaining quarterly economic data.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,044Date de fin
28 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly volatility in U.S. goods and services trade data, including the July 2026 widening to an $88.6 billion deficit from $73.3 billion in June amid rising imports and softer exports, underpins the tight contest between the 800–900 billion and 700–800 billion full-year outcomes at 42.0% and 40.5% implied probability. Persistent tariff policies, including Section 301 measures and sectoral duties, have driven earlier 2026 narrowing relative to 2025 levels through import substitution and supply-chain adjustments, yet elevated imports of capital goods and semiconductors alongside policy uncertainty continue to pressure the annual total. With the 12-month running deficit near $744 billion through July, trader consensus reflects balanced views on whether year-end momentum sustains the lower band or shifts higher, ahead of the August release and remaining quarterly economic data.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,044Date de fin
28 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly volatility in U.S. goods and services trade data, including the July 2026 widening to an $88.6 billion deficit from $73.3 billion in June amid rising imports and softer exports, underpins the tight contest between the 800–900 billion and 700–800 billion full-year outcomes at 42.0% and 40.5% implied probability. Persistent tariff policies, including Section 301 measures and sectoral duties, have driven earlier 2026 narrowing relative to 2025 levels through import substitution and supply-chain adjustments, yet elevated imports of capital goods and semiconductors alongside policy uncertainty continue to pressure the annual total. With the 12-month running deficit near $744 billion through July, trader consensus reflects balanced views on whether year-end momentum sustains the lower band or shifts higher, ahead of the August release and remaining quarterly economic data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes