Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target have shifted trader sentiment toward a higher probability of a rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while July CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and the removal of forward guidance have reinforced expectations that policymakers may act if price pressures from energy and supply factors fail to ease. Markets currently imply roughly 58-70% odds of a 25-basis-point hike next week, with the August CPI release due September 11 providing the final data point before the decision.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$2,924,537 Vol.

Réunion de septembre
54%

Réunion d'octobre
66%
$2,924,537 Vol.

Réunion de septembre
54%

Réunion d'octobre
66%
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Résolveur
0x65070BE91...If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Résolveur
0x65070BE91...Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target have shifted trader sentiment toward a higher probability of a rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while July CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and the removal of forward guidance have reinforced expectations that policymakers may act if price pressures from energy and supply factors fail to ease. Markets currently imply roughly 58-70% odds of a 25-basis-point hike next week, with the August CPI release due September 11 providing the final data point before the decision.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour


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