The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.84% on September 9, 2026—its highest level since late 2023—after Treasury’s $6 billion longer-dated buyback fell short of some expectations and amid elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel from Middle East conflict. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, citing 3.7% PCE inflation and questioning the durability of recent disinflation, have lifted market-implied odds of a September FOMC rate hike above 50%. Strong demand at the $39 billion 10-year auction (high yield 4.834%, bid-to-cover 2.71) provided modest relief, yet resilient growth, sticky core inflation, and higher term-premium expectations continue to support elevated yields. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC decision, upcoming PPI and CPI releases, and any escalation in energy markets that could push the monthly high beyond current levels.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuel sera le rendement des bons du Trésor à 10 ans en septembre ?
Quel sera le rendement des bons du Trésor à 10 ans en septembre ?
$16,039 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
5,10 %
3%
5,05 %
8%
5,00 %
15%
4,97 %
17%
4,94 %
23%
4,91 %
29%
4,88 %
44%
4,85 %
85%
$16,039 Vol.
5,10 %
$2,606 Vol.
3%
5,05 %
$871 Vol.
8%
5,00 %
$1,365 Vol.
15%
4,97 %
$1,444 Vol.
17%
4,94 %
$1,249 Vol.
23%
4,91 %
$1,757 Vol.
29%
4,88 %
$1,526 Vol.
44%
4,85 %
$1,226 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.84% on September 9, 2026—its highest level since late 2023—after Treasury’s $6 billion longer-dated buyback fell short of some expectations and amid elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel from Middle East conflict. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, citing 3.7% PCE inflation and questioning the durability of recent disinflation, have lifted market-implied odds of a September FOMC rate hike above 50%. Strong demand at the $39 billion 10-year auction (high yield 4.834%, bid-to-cover 2.71) provided modest relief, yet resilient growth, sticky core inflation, and higher term-premium expectations continue to support elevated yields. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC decision, upcoming PPI and CPI releases, and any escalation in energy markets that could push the monthly high beyond current levels.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$16,039Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.84% on September 9, 2026—its highest level since late 2023—after Treasury’s $6 billion longer-dated buyback fell short of some expectations and amid elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel from Middle East conflict. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, citing 3.7% PCE inflation and questioning the durability of recent disinflation, have lifted market-implied odds of a September FOMC rate hike above 50%. Strong demand at the $39 billion 10-year auction (high yield 4.834%, bid-to-cover 2.71) provided modest relief, yet resilient growth, sticky core inflation, and higher term-premium expectations continue to support elevated yields. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC decision, upcoming PPI and CPI releases, and any escalation in energy markets that could push the monthly high beyond current levels.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$16,039Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.84% on September 9, 2026—its highest level since late 2023—after Treasury’s $6 billion longer-dated buyback fell short of some expectations and amid elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel from Middle East conflict. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, citing 3.7% PCE inflation and questioning the durability of recent disinflation, have lifted market-implied odds of a September FOMC rate hike above 50%. Strong demand at the $39 billion 10-year auction (high yield 4.834%, bid-to-cover 2.71) provided modest relief, yet resilient growth, sticky core inflation, and higher term-premium expectations continue to support elevated yields. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC decision, upcoming PPI and CPI releases, and any escalation in energy markets that could push the monthly high beyond current levels.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes