Trader sentiment on September nonfarm payrolls reflects a cooling labor market amid mixed recent indicators, with the closely matched leading bins of 0-50k (27.5%) and 50-100k (27%) jobs added highlighting uncertainty over the pace of slowdown. Recent data on initial claims, ADP private payrolls, and revisions to prior months have tempered expectations for robust growth, while persistent inflation readings and Treasury yield movements keep focus on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Market-implied odds price in a higher probability of subdued hiring than historical averages, driven by sector-specific weakness in manufacturing and services. The October release itself remains the key near-term catalyst, with any surprises in unemployment or wage growth likely to shift probabilities across bins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien d'emplois ont été ajoutés en septembre ?
Combien d'emplois ont été ajoutés en septembre ?
0 à 50 000 29%
50 000 à 100 000 27%
150k à 200k 13%
100 000 à 150 000 12%
<-50k
7%
-50 000 à 0
11%
0 à 50 000
29%
50 000 à 100 000
27%
100 000 à 150 000
12%
150k à 200k
13%
200k+
9%
0 à 50 000 29%
50 000 à 100 000 27%
150k à 200k 13%
100 000 à 150 000 12%
<-50k
7%
-50 000 à 0
11%
0 à 50 000
29%
50 000 à 100 000
27%
100 000 à 150 000
12%
150k à 200k
13%
200k+
9%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Marché ouvert : Sep 4, 2026, 12:37 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Source de résolution
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on September nonfarm payrolls reflects a cooling labor market amid mixed recent indicators, with the closely matched leading bins of 0-50k (27.5%) and 50-100k (27%) jobs added highlighting uncertainty over the pace of slowdown. Recent data on initial claims, ADP private payrolls, and revisions to prior months have tempered expectations for robust growth, while persistent inflation readings and Treasury yield movements keep focus on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Market-implied odds price in a higher probability of subdued hiring than historical averages, driven by sector-specific weakness in manufacturing and services. The October release itself remains the key near-term catalyst, with any surprises in unemployment or wage growth likely to shift probabilities across bins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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