**Recent August CPI data at 0.8% YoY, up from July’s 0.5% low, has anchored trader expectations for September around the 0.9–1.0% range.** Persistent food deflation, especially in pork amid ample supply and weak household demand, continues to cap headline gains, while non-food components—led by transport, fuel, and select policy-supported categories such as trade-in incentives—provide modest upward lift. Core inflation near 1.0% signals contained underlying pressures. Forecasters project full-year 2026 CPI near 0.8–1.2%, reflecting subdued domestic activity, lingering property-sector drag, and fading external cost impulses from earlier commodity spikes. These dynamics position the 0.9–1.0% and 1.1%+ bins as the primary consensus outcomes, with lower readings viewed as less probable absent sharper demand weakness.