Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, including commitments to price stability amid reaccelerating inflation, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.62% as of September 9, 2026, up sharply from levels near 3.6% a year earlier. Core PCE inflation has climbed to 3.4% year-over-year while headline readings show persistent pressures, reinforced by firm labor market data and geopolitical factors such as energy market disruptions. Market-implied policy expectations now incorporate a higher terminal rate path, with the upcoming September FOMC meeting and dot plot likely to clarify the extent of any remaining easing. Fiscal deficits, Treasury issuance dynamics, and term premium expansion further anchor longer-dated yields, limiting downside moves even as traders assess incoming CPI, PPI, and employment releases through year-end. These forces collectively shape the range of potential lows before 2027 resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourJusqu'à quel point le rendement des bons du Trésor à 5 ans sera-t-il faible avant 2027 ?
Jusqu'à quel point le rendement des bons du Trésor à 5 ans sera-t-il faible avant 2027 ?
NOUVEAU
30 déc. 2026
Sous 4,50 %
84%
Sous 4,45 %
75%
Sous 4,40 %
69%
Sous 4,35 %
61%
Sous 4,30 %
51%
En dessous de 4,25 %
43%
Sous 4,20 %
37%
Sous 4,10 %
24%
Sous 4,00 %
14%
$9,042 Vol.
Sous 4,50 %
$56 Vol.
84%
Sous 4,45 %
$0 Vol.
75%
Sous 4,40 %
$504 Vol.
69%
Sous 4,35 %
$847 Vol.
61%
Sous 4,30 %
$0 Vol.
51%
En dessous de 4,25 %
$0 Vol.
43%
Sous 4,20 %
$522 Vol.
37%
Sous 4,10 %
$5,873 Vol.
24%
Sous 4,00 %
$1,240 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, including commitments to price stability amid reaccelerating inflation, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.62% as of September 9, 2026, up sharply from levels near 3.6% a year earlier. Core PCE inflation has climbed to 3.4% year-over-year while headline readings show persistent pressures, reinforced by firm labor market data and geopolitical factors such as energy market disruptions. Market-implied policy expectations now incorporate a higher terminal rate path, with the upcoming September FOMC meeting and dot plot likely to clarify the extent of any remaining easing. Fiscal deficits, Treasury issuance dynamics, and term premium expansion further anchor longer-dated yields, limiting downside moves even as traders assess incoming CPI, PPI, and employment releases through year-end. These forces collectively shape the range of potential lows before 2027 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$9,042Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, including commitments to price stability amid reaccelerating inflation, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.62% as of September 9, 2026, up sharply from levels near 3.6% a year earlier. Core PCE inflation has climbed to 3.4% year-over-year while headline readings show persistent pressures, reinforced by firm labor market data and geopolitical factors such as energy market disruptions. Market-implied policy expectations now incorporate a higher terminal rate path, with the upcoming September FOMC meeting and dot plot likely to clarify the extent of any remaining easing. Fiscal deficits, Treasury issuance dynamics, and term premium expansion further anchor longer-dated yields, limiting downside moves even as traders assess incoming CPI, PPI, and employment releases through year-end. These forces collectively shape the range of potential lows before 2027 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$9,042Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, including commitments to price stability amid reaccelerating inflation, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.62% as of September 9, 2026, up sharply from levels near 3.6% a year earlier. Core PCE inflation has climbed to 3.4% year-over-year while headline readings show persistent pressures, reinforced by firm labor market data and geopolitical factors such as energy market disruptions. Market-implied policy expectations now incorporate a higher terminal rate path, with the upcoming September FOMC meeting and dot plot likely to clarify the extent of any remaining easing. Fiscal deficits, Treasury issuance dynamics, and term premium expansion further anchor longer-dated yields, limiting downside moves even as traders assess incoming CPI, PPI, and employment releases through year-end. These forces collectively shape the range of potential lows before 2027 resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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