Recent hawkish repricing in Fed policy expectations, driven by sticky August CPI at 3.4% and hotter PPI amid surging oil prices from geopolitical tensions, has pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to around 5.35% near 19-year highs. Markets now price a high probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, with futures reflecting limited near-term easing and a higher long-run policy rate. Elevated term premium reflects heavy Treasury issuance, widening fiscal deficits near $2.1 trillion, and competition from corporate debt tied to AI infrastructure, outweighing recent inflation data in driving long-end yields. Key upcoming catalysts include the FOMC dot plot, September retail sales, and further inflation releases that could shift rate-path expectations and influence how far yields compress before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourJusqu'à quel point le rendement des bons du Trésor à 30 ans sera-t-il faible avant 2027 ?
Jusqu'à quel point le rendement des bons du Trésor à 30 ans sera-t-il faible avant 2027 ?
NOUVEAU
30 déc. 2026
Sous 5,20 %
80%
Sous 5,15 %
70%
Sous 5,10 %
63%
Sous 5,05 %
54%
Sous 5,00 %
46%
Sous 4,95 %
41%
Sous 4,90%
37%
En dessous de 4,80 %
22%
En dessous de 4,60 %
16%
$143 Vol.
Sous 5,20 %
$0 Vol.
80%
Sous 5,15 %
$0 Vol.
70%
Sous 5,10 %
$60 Vol.
63%
Sous 5,05 %
$0 Vol.
54%
Sous 5,00 %
$15 Vol.
46%
Sous 4,95 %
$5 Vol.
41%
Sous 4,90%
$62 Vol.
37%
En dessous de 4,80 %
$0 Vol.
22%
En dessous de 4,60 %
$0 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish repricing in Fed policy expectations, driven by sticky August CPI at 3.4% and hotter PPI amid surging oil prices from geopolitical tensions, has pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to around 5.35% near 19-year highs. Markets now price a high probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, with futures reflecting limited near-term easing and a higher long-run policy rate. Elevated term premium reflects heavy Treasury issuance, widening fiscal deficits near $2.1 trillion, and competition from corporate debt tied to AI infrastructure, outweighing recent inflation data in driving long-end yields. Key upcoming catalysts include the FOMC dot plot, September retail sales, and further inflation releases that could shift rate-path expectations and influence how far yields compress before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$143Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish repricing in Fed policy expectations, driven by sticky August CPI at 3.4% and hotter PPI amid surging oil prices from geopolitical tensions, has pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to around 5.35% near 19-year highs. Markets now price a high probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, with futures reflecting limited near-term easing and a higher long-run policy rate. Elevated term premium reflects heavy Treasury issuance, widening fiscal deficits near $2.1 trillion, and competition from corporate debt tied to AI infrastructure, outweighing recent inflation data in driving long-end yields. Key upcoming catalysts include the FOMC dot plot, September retail sales, and further inflation releases that could shift rate-path expectations and influence how far yields compress before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$143Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Recent hawkish repricing in Fed policy expectations, driven by sticky August CPI at 3.4% and hotter PPI amid surging oil prices from geopolitical tensions, has pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to around 5.35% near 19-year highs. Markets now price a high probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, with futures reflecting limited near-term easing and a higher long-run policy rate. Elevated term premium reflects heavy Treasury issuance, widening fiscal deficits near $2.1 trillion, and competition from corporate debt tied to AI infrastructure, outweighing recent inflation data in driving long-end yields. Key upcoming catalysts include the FOMC dot plot, September retail sales, and further inflation releases that could shift rate-path expectations and influence how far yields compress before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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