The Federal Reserve's September 16 rate hike of 25 basis points to a 3.75-4.00% target range, its first tightening move in three years, has driven recent upward pressure on the 5-year Treasury yield, which closed near 4.85-4.86% on September 16 amid a broader selloff that pushed the 10-year briefly above 5%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, with August CPI at 3.4% and elevated energy prices from Middle East supply risks, alongside robust retail sales data, reinforced expectations for additional hikes by year-end as signaled in updated FOMC projections. This hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh has steepened near-term policy expectations while flattening the yield curve, with markets now pricing further tightening contingent on upcoming CPI releases and labor data through the remainder of September.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuel sera le rendement du Trésor à 5 ans en septembre ?
Quel sera le rendement du Trésor à 5 ans en septembre ?
$20,599 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
4,90 %
53%
$20,599 Vol.
4,90 %
$2,363 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The Federal Reserve's September 16 rate hike of 25 basis points to a 3.75-4.00% target range, its first tightening move in three years, has driven recent upward pressure on the 5-year Treasury yield, which closed near 4.85-4.86% on September 16 amid a broader selloff that pushed the 10-year briefly above 5%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, with August CPI at 3.4% and elevated energy prices from Middle East supply risks, alongside robust retail sales data, reinforced expectations for additional hikes by year-end as signaled in updated FOMC projections. This hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh has steepened near-term policy expectations while flattening the yield curve, with markets now pricing further tightening contingent on upcoming CPI releases and labor data through the remainder of September.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ET
Volume
$20,599Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The Federal Reserve's September 16 rate hike of 25 basis points to a 3.75-4.00% target range, its first tightening move in three years, has driven recent upward pressure on the 5-year Treasury yield, which closed near 4.85-4.86% on September 16 amid a broader selloff that pushed the 10-year briefly above 5%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, with August CPI at 3.4% and elevated energy prices from Middle East supply risks, alongside robust retail sales data, reinforced expectations for additional hikes by year-end as signaled in updated FOMC projections. This hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh has steepened near-term policy expectations while flattening the yield curve, with markets now pricing further tightening contingent on upcoming CPI releases and labor data through the remainder of September.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$20,599Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve's September 16 rate hike of 25 basis points to a 3.75-4.00% target range, its first tightening move in three years, has driven recent upward pressure on the 5-year Treasury yield, which closed near 4.85-4.86% on September 16 amid a broader selloff that pushed the 10-year briefly above 5%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, with August CPI at 3.4% and elevated energy prices from Middle East supply risks, alongside robust retail sales data, reinforced expectations for additional hikes by year-end as signaled in updated FOMC projections. This hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh has steepened near-term policy expectations while flattening the yield curve, with markets now pricing further tightening contingent on upcoming CPI releases and labor data through the remainder of September.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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