Recent congressional action raising the statutory debt limit to $41.1 trillion in 2025 has created substantial headroom, with projections placing any binding constraint in early-to-mid 2027 and extraordinary measures extending runway further. Trader consensus at 97% against default by end-2026 reflects this timeline, the Treasury's established cash management tools, repeated historical resolutions of debt ceiling impasses through legislative action, and the severe market disruptions plus higher borrowing costs that would follow any missed Treasury payment. While debt has surpassed $40 trillion amid ongoing deficits, scheduled appropriations processes and incentives for both parties to avoid crisis maintain the low implied probability. Even in a divided Congress, extreme gridlock or sharp revenue shortfalls could narrow margins but remain unlikely to trigger resolution before the period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
3% chance
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
3% chance
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Recent congressional action raising the statutory debt limit to $41.1 trillion in 2025 has created substantial headroom, with projections placing any binding constraint in early-to-mid 2027 and extraordinary measures extending runway further. Trader consensus at 97% against default by end-2026 reflects this timeline, the Treasury's established cash management tools, repeated historical resolutions of debt ceiling impasses through legislative action, and the severe market disruptions plus higher borrowing costs that would follow any missed Treasury payment. While debt has surpassed $40 trillion amid ongoing deficits, scheduled appropriations processes and incentives for both parties to avoid crisis maintain the low implied probability. Even in a divided Congress, extreme gridlock or sharp revenue shortfalls could narrow margins but remain unlikely to trigger resolution before the period closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$18,051End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Recent congressional action raising the statutory debt limit to $41.1 trillion in 2025 has created substantial headroom, with projections placing any binding constraint in early-to-mid 2027 and extraordinary measures extending runway further. Trader consensus at 97% against default by end-2026 reflects this timeline, the Treasury's established cash management tools, repeated historical resolutions of debt ceiling impasses through legislative action, and the severe market disruptions plus higher borrowing costs that would follow any missed Treasury payment. While debt has surpassed $40 trillion amid ongoing deficits, scheduled appropriations processes and incentives for both parties to avoid crisis maintain the low implied probability. Even in a divided Congress, extreme gridlock or sharp revenue shortfalls could narrow margins but remain unlikely to trigger resolution before the period closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$18,051End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent congressional action raising the statutory debt limit to $41.1 trillion in 2025 has created substantial headroom, with projections placing any binding constraint in early-to-mid 2027 and extraordinary measures extending runway further. Trader consensus at 97% against default by end-2026 reflects this timeline, the Treasury's established cash management tools, repeated historical resolutions of debt ceiling impasses through legislative action, and the severe market disruptions plus higher borrowing costs that would follow any missed Treasury payment. While debt has surpassed $40 trillion amid ongoing deficits, scheduled appropriations processes and incentives for both parties to avoid crisis maintain the low implied probability. Even in a divided Congress, extreme gridlock or sharp revenue shortfalls could narrow margins but remain unlikely to trigger resolution before the period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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