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icon for Russia Parliamentary Election: 4th Place
Politics·Russia

Russia Parliamentary Election: 4th Place

icon for Russia Parliamentary Election: 4th Place
Politics·Russia

Russia Parliamentary Election: 4th Place

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 39%

New People (NL) 38%

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) 12%

Rodina 2.9%

Polymarket
NEW

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 39%

New People (NL) 38%

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) 12%

Rodina 2.9%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

$215 Vol.

39%

icon for New People (NL)

New People (NL)

$1,424 Vol.

38%

icon for A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)

$90 Vol.

12%

icon for Rodina

Rodina

$83 Vol.

3%

icon for Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)

$217 Vol.

2%

icon for United Russia (ER)

United Russia (ER)

$187 Vol.

1%

icon for Civic Platform (GP)

Civic Platform (GP)

$584 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Recent polling from FOM and WCIOM shows New People gaining ground with double-digit support, positioning it alongside LDPR as the leading contenders for fourth place behind United Russia, KPRF, and A Just Russia – For Truth in the September 2026 State Duma election. Trader consensus reflects this closeness, with both parties priced near 38-39% for the outcome while SRZP trails at 12%. Key factors sustaining the tight contest include New People's focus on regional development and family policies appealing to younger voters, LDPR's established nationalist platform, and the 5% threshold that limits smaller parties. Yabloko's disqualification has further narrowed the field without shifting the frontrunners. Upcoming campaign events in the final days could influence turnout among systemic opposition voters and determine final positioning.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$2,801
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Recent polling from FOM and WCIOM shows New People gaining ground with double-digit support, positioning it alongside LDPR as the leading contenders for fourth place behind United Russia, KPRF, and A Just Russia – For Truth in the September 2026 State Duma election. Trader consensus reflects this closeness, with both parties priced near 38-39% for the outcome while SRZP trails at 12%. Key factors sustaining the tight contest include New People's focus on regional development and family policies appealing to younger voters, LDPR's established nationalist platform, and the 5% threshold that limits smaller parties. Yabloko's disqualification has further narrowed the field without shifting the frontrunners. Upcoming campaign events in the final days could influence turnout among systemic opposition voters and determine final positioning.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$2,801
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Russia Parliamentary Election: 4th Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)" at 39%, followed by "New People (NL)" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Russia Parliamentary Election: 4th Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Russia Parliamentary Election: 4th Place," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Russia Parliamentary Election: 4th Place" is "Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "New People (NL)" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Russia Parliamentary Election: 4th Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.