In the Piauí Senate race for two seats on October 4, trader consensus reflects a tight contest for second place among Marcelo Castro (MDB), Júlio César (PSD), and Ciro Nogueira (PP), with polls from June showing Castro leading narrowly followed by Júlio César and Nogueira clustered within a few points amid 16-61% undecided or blank responses. High rejection rates for Nogueira and the two-vote system keep margins fluid, while registered candidacies and coligação alignments with Governor Rafael Fonteles's base have consolidated support for Castro and Júlio César. President Lula's September 9 public endorsement of those two candidates, explicitly contrasting them with Nogueira, represents the most recent catalyst that could shift second-place probabilities depending on turnout among undecided voters and any further campaign events before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPiauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Julio Cesar 35.3%
Marcelo Castro 32.5%
Ciro Nogueira 12%
Tiago Junqueira 5.0%
$42,854 Vol.
$42,854 Vol.
Julio Cesar
35%
Marcelo Castro
32%
Ciro Nogueira
12%
Tiago Junqueira
5%
Toinho Dufrango
<1%
Francinaldo Leão
<1%
Alexandre Mariano
<1%
Maria Madalena Nunes
<1%
Missionário Evandro Craveiro
<1%
Cloves José
<1%
Dionisio Carvalho
<1%
Jardenya Bezerra
<1%
Antônio José Lira
<1%
Major Paulo Roberto
<1%
Antônio Barros
<1%
Danniel Rocha
<1%
Irmão Evandro Marques
<1%
Jorge Lopes
<1%
Pastor Sena
<1%
Pedro Laurentino
<1%
Julio Cesar 35.3%
Marcelo Castro 32.5%
Ciro Nogueira 12%
Tiago Junqueira 5.0%
$42,854 Vol.
$42,854 Vol.
Julio Cesar
35%
Marcelo Castro
32%
Ciro Nogueira
12%
Tiago Junqueira
5%
Toinho Dufrango
<1%
Francinaldo Leão
<1%
Alexandre Mariano
<1%
Maria Madalena Nunes
<1%
Missionário Evandro Craveiro
<1%
Cloves José
<1%
Dionisio Carvalho
<1%
Jardenya Bezerra
<1%
Antônio José Lira
<1%
Major Paulo Roberto
<1%
Antônio Barros
<1%
Danniel Rocha
<1%
Irmão Evandro Marques
<1%
Jorge Lopes
<1%
Pastor Sena
<1%
Pedro Laurentino
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...In the Piauí Senate race for two seats on October 4, trader consensus reflects a tight contest for second place among Marcelo Castro (MDB), Júlio César (PSD), and Ciro Nogueira (PP), with polls from June showing Castro leading narrowly followed by Júlio César and Nogueira clustered within a few points amid 16-61% undecided or blank responses. High rejection rates for Nogueira and the two-vote system keep margins fluid, while registered candidacies and coligação alignments with Governor Rafael Fonteles's base have consolidated support for Castro and Júlio César. President Lula's September 9 public endorsement of those two candidates, explicitly contrasting them with Nogueira, represents the most recent catalyst that could shift second-place probabilities depending on turnout among undecided voters and any further campaign events before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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