**The 89.5% implied probability that Pedro Castillo will not receive a pardon in 2026 reflects the rejection of multiple clemency requests during interim President José María Balcázar’s term and the subsequent inauguration of Keiko Fujimori on July 28.** The Commission of Presidential Graces declared inadmissible the final pending petitions in July 2026 after reviewing 17 submissions, citing procedural shortfalls and the nature of Castillo’s 11-year sentence for conspiracy to rebel plus ongoing pretrial detention. Fujimori’s administration has shown no inclination to revisit the matter, consistent with her campaign emphasis on institutional order. A recent habeas corpus appeal tied to a non-binding UN working group report was already denied at first instance and faces further review in September 2026, leaving no immediate legal or political pathway open before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
11% chance
$43,495 Vol.
$43,495 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
11% chance
$43,495 Vol.
$43,495 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **The 89.5% implied probability that Pedro Castillo will not receive a pardon in 2026 reflects the rejection of multiple clemency requests during interim President José María Balcázar’s term and the subsequent inauguration of Keiko Fujimori on July 28.** The Commission of Presidential Graces declared inadmissible the final pending petitions in July 2026 after reviewing 17 submissions, citing procedural shortfalls and the nature of Castillo’s 11-year sentence for conspiracy to rebel plus ongoing pretrial detention. Fujimori’s administration has shown no inclination to revisit the matter, consistent with her campaign emphasis on institutional order. A recent habeas corpus appeal tied to a non-binding UN working group report was already denied at first instance and faces further review in September 2026, leaving no immediate legal or political pathway open before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
Volume
$43,495End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **The 89.5% implied probability that Pedro Castillo will not receive a pardon in 2026 reflects the rejection of multiple clemency requests during interim President José María Balcázar’s term and the subsequent inauguration of Keiko Fujimori on July 28.** The Commission of Presidential Graces declared inadmissible the final pending petitions in July 2026 after reviewing 17 submissions, citing procedural shortfalls and the nature of Castillo’s 11-year sentence for conspiracy to rebel plus ongoing pretrial detention. Fujimori’s administration has shown no inclination to revisit the matter, consistent with her campaign emphasis on institutional order. A recent habeas corpus appeal tied to a non-binding UN working group report was already denied at first instance and faces further review in September 2026, leaving no immediate legal or political pathway open before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$43,495End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The 89.5% implied probability that Pedro Castillo will not receive a pardon in 2026 reflects the rejection of multiple clemency requests during interim President José María Balcázar’s term and the subsequent inauguration of Keiko Fujimori on July 28.** The Commission of Presidential Graces declared inadmissible the final pending petitions in July 2026 after reviewing 17 submissions, citing procedural shortfalls and the nature of Castillo’s 11-year sentence for conspiracy to rebel plus ongoing pretrial detention. Fujimori’s administration has shown no inclination to revisit the matter, consistent with her campaign emphasis on institutional order. A recent habeas corpus appeal tied to a non-binding UN working group report was already denied at first instance and faces further review in September 2026, leaving no immediate legal or political pathway open before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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