Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Politics·Trump

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

icon for Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Politics·Trump

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

$456,692 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$456,692 Vol.

Polymarket

Stefan Brodie

$2,809 Vol.

21%

Roger Stone

$7,846 Vol.

18%

Donald Brodie

$3,953 Vol.

16%

Keonne Rodriguez

$17,534 Vol.

15%

Ryan Salame

$31,464 Vol.

12%

Daniel Penny

$508 Vol.

11%

Steve Bannon

$8,029 Vol.

10%

Joe Exotic

$5,369 Vol.

9%

Eric Adams

$1,101 Vol.

9%

Roger Ver

$1,617 Vol.

8%

Young Thug

$4,702 Vol.

7%

Matt Gaetz

$5,163 Vol.

7%

Bob Menendez

$295 Vol.

6%

Julian Assange

$4,218 Vol.

6%

Martin Shkreli

$30,439 Vol.

6%

Elizabeth Holmes

$3,607 Vol.

5%

Nicolas Maduro

$10,351 Vol.

5%

Ghislaine Maxwell

$22,849 Vol.

5%

Diddy

$30,169 Vol.

4%

Edward Snowden

$3,183 Vol.

4%

Sam Bankman-Fried

$135,732 Vol.

4%

Andrew Tate

$1,035 Vol.

4%

Derek Chauvin

$26,571 Vol.

3%

Antoine Massey

$2,480 Vol.

3%

Himself

$13,648 Vol.

3%

Do Kwon

$23,621 Vol.

3%

Hunter Biden

$5,483 Vol.

3%

Elon Musk

$52,917 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump’s second-term clemency actions have centered on broad grants to January 6 defendants (roughly 1,500 on inauguration day), the 2020 fake electors slate (77 individuals including Rudy Giuliani and Sidney Powell in November 2025), and dozens of allies, donors, politicians, and connected figures such as George Santos, Henry Cuellar, Changpeng Zhao, Ross Ulbricht, and Stephen Buyer. More than 1,700 grants have occurred by mid-2026, often bypassing standard DOJ review in favor of direct White House channels and influence from Trump associates. Recent examples include the September 4, 2026 batch of 30 actions covering drug offenders, a Philadelphia union official, and others with varying profiles. Trader focus remains on individuals with demonstrated political or financial ties to the administration, as the pattern shows continued use of the power through the remainder of 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$456,692
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump’s second-term clemency actions have centered on broad grants to January 6 defendants (roughly 1,500 on inauguration day), the 2020 fake electors slate (77 individuals including Rudy Giuliani and Sidney Powell in November 2025), and dozens of allies, donors, politicians, and connected figures such as George Santos, Henry Cuellar, Changpeng Zhao, Ross Ulbricht, and Stephen Buyer. More than 1,700 grants have occurred by mid-2026, often bypassing standard DOJ review in favor of direct White House channels and influence from Trump associates. Recent examples include the September 4, 2026 batch of 30 actions covering drug offenders, a Philadelphia union official, and others with varying profiles. Trader focus remains on individuals with demonstrated political or financial ties to the administration, as the pattern shows continued use of the power through the remainder of 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$456,692
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Related

icon for Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

5%
icon for Will Trump resign before 2027?

Will Trump resign before 2027?

3%
icon for Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

3%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 28 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Stefan Brodie" at 21%, followed by "Roger Stone" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 21¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" has generated $456.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?," browse the 28 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is "Stefan Brodie" at 21%, meaning the market assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Roger Stone" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.