Tim Kennedy holds a commanding lead in the NY-26 race because he is the incumbent Democrat in a district with a strong partisan lean, rated Solid or Safe Democratic by multiple forecasters. He won reelection in 2024 with 65 percent of the vote in the Buffalo-Niagara Falls area, and both parties' June 2026 primaries were uncontested. Kennedy has raised over $2 million, while Republican Dennis Hannon, a first-time candidate emphasizing public safety and costs, faces structural disadvantages in voter registration and turnout patterns. The general election is November 3. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-26 House Election Winner
NY-26 House Election Winner
$26,636 Vol.
$26,636 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Tim Kennedy (D)
95%
Dennis Hannon (R)
3%
$26,636 Vol.
$26,636 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Tim Kennedy (D)
$14,443 Vol.
95%
Dennis Hannon (R)
$12,193 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tim Kennedy holds a commanding lead in the NY-26 race because he is the incumbent Democrat in a district with a strong partisan lean, rated Solid or Safe Democratic by multiple forecasters. He won reelection in 2024 with 65 percent of the vote in the Buffalo-Niagara Falls area, and both parties' June 2026 primaries were uncontested. Kennedy has raised over $2 million, while Republican Dennis Hannon, a first-time candidate emphasizing public safety and costs, faces structural disadvantages in voter registration and turnout patterns. The general election is November 3. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$26,636End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tim Kennedy holds a commanding lead in the NY-26 race because he is the incumbent Democrat in a district with a strong partisan lean, rated Solid or Safe Democratic by multiple forecasters. He won reelection in 2024 with 65 percent of the vote in the Buffalo-Niagara Falls area, and both parties' June 2026 primaries were uncontested. Kennedy has raised over $2 million, while Republican Dennis Hannon, a first-time candidate emphasizing public safety and costs, faces structural disadvantages in voter registration and turnout patterns. The general election is November 3. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,636End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tim Kennedy holds a commanding lead in the NY-26 race because he is the incumbent Democrat in a district with a strong partisan lean, rated Solid or Safe Democratic by multiple forecasters. He won reelection in 2024 with 65 percent of the vote in the Buffalo-Niagara Falls area, and both parties' June 2026 primaries were uncontested. Kennedy has raised over $2 million, while Republican Dennis Hannon, a first-time candidate emphasizing public safety and costs, faces structural disadvantages in voter registration and turnout patterns. The general election is November 3. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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