Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell secured his party's nomination with an 84% primary victory in March 2026, positioning him as the clear frontrunner in Mississippi's 4th Congressional District ahead of the November general election. The district's established Republican tilt, reflected in nonpartisan race ratings classifying it as safe or solid for the GOP, underpins trader consensus favoring Ezell at 96.7% implied probability. Democratic nominee Jeffrey Hulum III, a state representative who won his primary, faces structural headwinds in a constituency with consistent Republican voting patterns in recent cycles. An independent candidate adds a minor variable, but late developments such as turnout shifts or unforeseen events would be required to materially alter the current market positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMS-04 House Election Winner
MS-04 House Election Winner
$40,255 Vol.
$40,255 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Mike Ezell (R)
97%
Jeffrey Hulum III (D)
3%
$40,255 Vol.
$40,255 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Mike Ezell (R)
$25,175 Vol.
97%
Jeffrey Hulum III (D)
$15,080 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell secured his party's nomination with an 84% primary victory in March 2026, positioning him as the clear frontrunner in Mississippi's 4th Congressional District ahead of the November general election. The district's established Republican tilt, reflected in nonpartisan race ratings classifying it as safe or solid for the GOP, underpins trader consensus favoring Ezell at 96.7% implied probability. Democratic nominee Jeffrey Hulum III, a state representative who won his primary, faces structural headwinds in a constituency with consistent Republican voting patterns in recent cycles. An independent candidate adds a minor variable, but late developments such as turnout shifts or unforeseen events would be required to materially alter the current market positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$40,255End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell secured his party's nomination with an 84% primary victory in March 2026, positioning him as the clear frontrunner in Mississippi's 4th Congressional District ahead of the November general election. The district's established Republican tilt, reflected in nonpartisan race ratings classifying it as safe or solid for the GOP, underpins trader consensus favoring Ezell at 96.7% implied probability. Democratic nominee Jeffrey Hulum III, a state representative who won his primary, faces structural headwinds in a constituency with consistent Republican voting patterns in recent cycles. An independent candidate adds a minor variable, but late developments such as turnout shifts or unforeseen events would be required to materially alter the current market positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$40,255End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell secured his party's nomination with an 84% primary victory in March 2026, positioning him as the clear frontrunner in Mississippi's 4th Congressional District ahead of the November general election. The district's established Republican tilt, reflected in nonpartisan race ratings classifying it as safe or solid for the GOP, underpins trader consensus favoring Ezell at 96.7% implied probability. Democratic nominee Jeffrey Hulum III, a state representative who won his primary, faces structural headwinds in a constituency with consistent Republican voting patterns in recent cycles. An independent candidate adds a minor variable, but late developments such as turnout shifts or unforeseen events would be required to materially alter the current market positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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