**No at 91.5%** reflects traders' assessment that comprehensive NASA JPL and ESA monitoring has identified no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy before year-end. Updated risk lists as of mid-September 2026 list only low-probability events years or decades ahead, while recent close approaches and the handful of small predicted impacts involved meter-scale bodies releasing far less energy. Ongoing planetary defense surveys, including refined orbital tracking and historical impact frequency data, reinforce the consensus that such events remain statistically rare within any single calendar year. With roughly three months remaining, the primary near-term catalysts are continued LSST observations and any new radar detections that could further tighten assessments. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an undetected sub-10-meter object entering undetected, though extensive coverage and the short remaining window limit that tail risk.