No cataloged near-Earth objects currently pose a 5 kt or greater impact risk for the remainder of 2026, according to NASA and ESA monitoring systems, which underpins the market-implied 74.5% probability of “No.” Estimates of annual frequency for airbursts at this energy threshold range from roughly one per year in older models to one every few decades in more recent analyses of CNEOS fireball data, reflecting the steep size-frequency distribution of small meteoroids. Multiple 2026 events detected by ground sensors and GOES satellites have released only hundreds of tons TNT equivalent, consistent with objects under 2 meters in diameter. Continued Sentry and Scout tracking, plus any new detections before year-end, represent the key variables that could shift consensus if an unexpected large body appears on a collision trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
26% chance
$313,726 Vol.
$313,726 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
26% chance
$313,726 Vol.
$313,726 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No cataloged near-Earth objects currently pose a 5 kt or greater impact risk for the remainder of 2026, according to NASA and ESA monitoring systems, which underpins the market-implied 74.5% probability of “No.” Estimates of annual frequency for airbursts at this energy threshold range from roughly one per year in older models to one every few decades in more recent analyses of CNEOS fireball data, reflecting the steep size-frequency distribution of small meteoroids. Multiple 2026 events detected by ground sensors and GOES satellites have released only hundreds of tons TNT equivalent, consistent with objects under 2 meters in diameter. Continued Sentry and Scout tracking, plus any new detections before year-end, represent the key variables that could shift consensus if an unexpected large body appears on a collision trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$313,726End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No cataloged near-Earth objects currently pose a 5 kt or greater impact risk for the remainder of 2026, according to NASA and ESA monitoring systems, which underpins the market-implied 74.5% probability of “No.” Estimates of annual frequency for airbursts at this energy threshold range from roughly one per year in older models to one every few decades in more recent analyses of CNEOS fireball data, reflecting the steep size-frequency distribution of small meteoroids. Multiple 2026 events detected by ground sensors and GOES satellites have released only hundreds of tons TNT equivalent, consistent with objects under 2 meters in diameter. Continued Sentry and Scout tracking, plus any new detections before year-end, represent the key variables that could shift consensus if an unexpected large body appears on a collision trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$313,726End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No cataloged near-Earth objects currently pose a 5 kt or greater impact risk for the remainder of 2026, according to NASA and ESA monitoring systems, which underpins the market-implied 74.5% probability of “No.” Estimates of annual frequency for airbursts at this energy threshold range from roughly one per year in older models to one every few decades in more recent analyses of CNEOS fireball data, reflecting the steep size-frequency distribution of small meteoroids. Multiple 2026 events detected by ground sensors and GOES satellites have released only hundreds of tons TNT equivalent, consistent with objects under 2 meters in diameter. Continued Sentry and Scout tracking, plus any new detections before year-end, represent the key variables that could shift consensus if an unexpected large body appears on a collision trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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