Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquito pools—reaching 1,568 positive samples by early September 2026, nearly double the prior year's pace at comparable dates—has driven trader sentiment toward the 20-34 neuroinvasive disease cases range. Early-season detections began June 16, with the first human case reported August 19 and nine neuroinvasive cases confirmed across boroughs by mid-September. This exceeds the long-term median of 14 annual cases but aligns with the 2022-2025 average of 31. Intensified surveillance, aerial larviciding, and public precautions have likely tempered transmission during peak August-September activity. Historical patterns and ongoing CDC ArboNET monitoring suggest the current implied probabilities reflect expectations for a moderate but contained season rather than an extreme outbreak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
20 to 34 51%
35 to 49 27%
Fewer than 20 10.8%
50 or more 5.0%
$12,010 Vol.
$12,010 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
Fewer than 20
11%
20 to 34
51%
35 to 49
27%
50 or more
5%
20 to 34 51%
35 to 49 27%
Fewer than 20 10.8%
50 or more 5.0%
$12,010 Vol.
$12,010 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
Fewer than 20
$3,864 Vol.
11%
20 to 34
$5,015 Vol.
51%
35 to 49
$2,627 Vol.
27%
50 or more
$504 Vol.
5%
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquito pools—reaching 1,568 positive samples by early September 2026, nearly double the prior year's pace at comparable dates—has driven trader sentiment toward the 20-34 neuroinvasive disease cases range. Early-season detections began June 16, with the first human case reported August 19 and nine neuroinvasive cases confirmed across boroughs by mid-September. This exceeds the long-term median of 14 annual cases but aligns with the 2022-2025 average of 31. Intensified surveillance, aerial larviciding, and public precautions have likely tempered transmission during peak August-September activity. Historical patterns and ongoing CDC ArboNET monitoring suggest the current implied probabilities reflect expectations for a moderate but contained season rather than an extreme outbreak.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$12,010End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquito pools—reaching 1,568 positive samples by early September 2026, nearly double the prior year's pace at comparable dates—has driven trader sentiment toward the 20-34 neuroinvasive disease cases range. Early-season detections began June 16, with the first human case reported August 19 and nine neuroinvasive cases confirmed across boroughs by mid-September. This exceeds the long-term median of 14 annual cases but aligns with the 2022-2025 average of 31. Intensified surveillance, aerial larviciding, and public precautions have likely tempered transmission during peak August-September activity. Historical patterns and ongoing CDC ArboNET monitoring suggest the current implied probabilities reflect expectations for a moderate but contained season rather than an extreme outbreak.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Volume
$12,010End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquito pools—reaching 1,568 positive samples by early September 2026, nearly double the prior year's pace at comparable dates—has driven trader sentiment toward the 20-34 neuroinvasive disease cases range. Early-season detections began June 16, with the first human case reported August 19 and nine neuroinvasive cases confirmed across boroughs by mid-September. This exceeds the long-term median of 14 annual cases but aligns with the 2022-2025 average of 31. Intensified surveillance, aerial larviciding, and public precautions have likely tempered transmission during peak August-September activity. Historical patterns and ongoing CDC ArboNET monitoring suggest the current implied probabilities reflect expectations for a moderate but contained season rather than an extreme outbreak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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