Strong El Niño conditions, with rapidly warming equatorial Pacific waters and associated upper-level wind shear, continue to suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone organization despite peak-season sea surface temperatures. As of September 9, five named tropical storms have formed but none have reached hurricane intensity (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale), placing the basin on pace for the latest first hurricane in the satellite era. The National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclone development likely over the next seven days, consistent with NOAA’s below-normal seasonal outlook. This atmospheric environment—high shear and dry air—has prevented intensification of recent systems like Edouard, supporting the market’s 55% implied probability of no September hurricane while leaving later months more uncertain pending model trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhen will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?
When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?
No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026 55%
September 26 to September 30, 2026 14%
September 21 to September 25, 2026 12%
September 16 to September 20, 2026 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
September 1 to September 10, 2026
1%
September 11 to September 15, 2026
3%
September 16 to September 20, 2026
10%
September 21 to September 25, 2026
12%
September 26 to September 30, 2026
14%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026
55%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026 55%
September 26 to September 30, 2026 14%
September 21 to September 25, 2026 12%
September 16 to September 20, 2026 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
September 1 to September 10, 2026
$586 Vol.
1%
September 11 to September 15, 2026
$408 Vol.
3%
September 16 to September 20, 2026
$1,540 Vol.
10%
September 21 to September 25, 2026
$1,554 Vol.
12%
September 26 to September 30, 2026
$560 Vol.
14%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026
$424 Vol.
55%
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Strong El Niño conditions, with rapidly warming equatorial Pacific waters and associated upper-level wind shear, continue to suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone organization despite peak-season sea surface temperatures. As of September 9, five named tropical storms have formed but none have reached hurricane intensity (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale), placing the basin on pace for the latest first hurricane in the satellite era. The National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclone development likely over the next seven days, consistent with NOAA’s below-normal seasonal outlook. This atmospheric environment—high shear and dry air—has prevented intensification of recent systems like Edouard, supporting the market’s 55% implied probability of no September hurricane while leaving later months more uncertain pending model trends.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Volume
$5,072End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Strong El Niño conditions, with rapidly warming equatorial Pacific waters and associated upper-level wind shear, continue to suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone organization despite peak-season sea surface temperatures. As of September 9, five named tropical storms have formed but none have reached hurricane intensity (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale), placing the basin on pace for the latest first hurricane in the satellite era. The National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclone development likely over the next seven days, consistent with NOAA’s below-normal seasonal outlook. This atmospheric environment—high shear and dry air—has prevented intensification of recent systems like Edouard, supporting the market’s 55% implied probability of no September hurricane while leaving later months more uncertain pending model trends.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Volume
$5,072End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with rapidly warming equatorial Pacific waters and associated upper-level wind shear, continue to suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone organization despite peak-season sea surface temperatures. As of September 9, five named tropical storms have formed but none have reached hurricane intensity (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale), placing the basin on pace for the latest first hurricane in the satellite era. The National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclone development likely over the next seven days, consistent with NOAA’s below-normal seasonal outlook. This atmospheric environment—high shear and dry air—has prevented intensification of recent systems like Edouard, supporting the market’s 55% implied probability of no September hurricane while leaving later months more uncertain pending model trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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