SpaceX has demonstrated repeated Super Heavy booster tower catches and rapid turnaround potential through 2026 flights, yet the upper-stage Starship vehicle remains the critical bottleneck for full reusability. Flight 13 in July delivered a precise Ship splashdown after successful Starlink V3 deployment and in-space Raptor relight, with data confirming catch-ready accuracy, but the booster landing burn failed and no orbital return or tower catch of the Ship has occurred. Elon Musk projected a Ship catch attempt within months and the first Ship reflight by late 2026 or early 2027, contingent on FAA approval for land returns and orbital profiles ahead of Flight 14. Traders price these regulatory, technical, and cadence risks as tilting the balance against completing both-stage catch-and-reflight cycles before 2027.