Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and the European Space Agency has identified no catalogued near-Earth objects large enough—typically tens of meters across—to produce a 100-kiloton atmospheric impact energy in 2026. Ongoing optical and radar surveys maintain high-precision orbits for known bodies, while historical bolide data from the NASA JPL Fireball repository show such energetic events occur only rarely, roughly once per several decades on average. With most of the year elapsed and no qualifying detections reported, trader consensus at 96.4% for “No” reflects this low baseline risk. Undetected small fragments or a late-survey discovery could theoretically alter outcomes, though model consensus and current close-approach lists make that scenario improbable before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and the European Space Agency has identified no catalogued near-Earth objects large enough—typically tens of meters across—to produce a 100-kiloton atmospheric impact energy in 2026. Ongoing optical and radar surveys maintain high-precision orbits for known bodies, while historical bolide data from the NASA JPL Fireball repository show such energetic events occur only rarely, roughly once per several decades on average. With most of the year elapsed and no qualifying detections reported, trader consensus at 96.4% for “No” reflects this low baseline risk. Undetected small fragments or a late-survey discovery could theoretically alter outcomes, though model consensus and current close-approach lists make that scenario improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$8,955End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and the European Space Agency has identified no catalogued near-Earth objects large enough—typically tens of meters across—to produce a 100-kiloton atmospheric impact energy in 2026. Ongoing optical and radar surveys maintain high-precision orbits for known bodies, while historical bolide data from the NASA JPL Fireball repository show such energetic events occur only rarely, roughly once per several decades on average. With most of the year elapsed and no qualifying detections reported, trader consensus at 96.4% for “No” reflects this low baseline risk. Undetected small fragments or a late-survey discovery could theoretically alter outcomes, though model consensus and current close-approach lists make that scenario improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$8,955End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and the European Space Agency has identified no catalogued near-Earth objects large enough—typically tens of meters across—to produce a 100-kiloton atmospheric impact energy in 2026. Ongoing optical and radar surveys maintain high-precision orbits for known bodies, while historical bolide data from the NASA JPL Fireball repository show such energetic events occur only rarely, roughly once per several decades on average. With most of the year elapsed and no qualifying detections reported, trader consensus at 96.4% for “No” reflects this low baseline risk. Undetected small fragments or a late-survey discovery could theoretically alter outcomes, though model consensus and current close-approach lists make that scenario improbable before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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