**Met Office provisional data released on September 1 confirms summer 2026 as the UK's warmest on record, with a mean temperature of 16.5°C across June–August—0.4°C above the 2025 record and well clear of earlier benchmarks like 1976.** This outcome, now the top five warmest summers all post-2003, reflects sustained heatwaves, nine days above 35°C, and a peak of 38.1°C, with the season's warmth made around 130 times more likely by human-induced climate change per attribution analysis. Multiple stations set daily maximum records amid dry, sunny conditions. While final verification could introduce minor adjustments, the 0.4°C margin makes reversal improbable absent substantial data revisions. Traders' near-certain consensus mirrors this clear observational signal and long-term warming trend.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
Will summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
97% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
97% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.**Met Office provisional data released on September 1 confirms summer 2026 as the UK's warmest on record, with a mean temperature of 16.5°C across June–August—0.4°C above the 2025 record and well clear of earlier benchmarks like 1976.** This outcome, now the top five warmest summers all post-2003, reflects sustained heatwaves, nine days above 35°C, and a peak of 38.1°C, with the season's warmth made around 130 times more likely by human-induced climate change per attribution analysis. Multiple stations set daily maximum records amid dry, sunny conditions. While final verification could introduce minor adjustments, the 0.4°C margin makes reversal improbable absent substantial data revisions. Traders' near-certain consensus mirrors this clear observational signal and long-term warming trend.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Volume
$1,549End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.**Met Office provisional data released on September 1 confirms summer 2026 as the UK's warmest on record, with a mean temperature of 16.5°C across June–August—0.4°C above the 2025 record and well clear of earlier benchmarks like 1976.** This outcome, now the top five warmest summers all post-2003, reflects sustained heatwaves, nine days above 35°C, and a peak of 38.1°C, with the season's warmth made around 130 times more likely by human-induced climate change per attribution analysis. Multiple stations set daily maximum records amid dry, sunny conditions. While final verification could introduce minor adjustments, the 0.4°C margin makes reversal improbable absent substantial data revisions. Traders' near-certain consensus mirrors this clear observational signal and long-term warming trend.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,549End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Met Office provisional data released on September 1 confirms summer 2026 as the UK's warmest on record, with a mean temperature of 16.5°C across June–August—0.4°C above the 2025 record and well clear of earlier benchmarks like 1976.** This outcome, now the top five warmest summers all post-2003, reflects sustained heatwaves, nine days above 35°C, and a peak of 38.1°C, with the season's warmth made around 130 times more likely by human-induced climate change per attribution analysis. Multiple stations set daily maximum records amid dry, sunny conditions. While final verification could introduce minor adjustments, the 0.4°C margin makes reversal improbable absent substantial data revisions. Traders' near-certain consensus mirrors this clear observational signal and long-term warming trend.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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