**Elevated preliminary tornado counts through early September 2026, already totaling 1,419 according to Storm Prediction Center data, have driven strong market consensus toward the 1250+ outcome.** This figure reflects an active severe weather season, highlighted by a record-setting pace in Illinois and major outbreaks including a June 9–11 event that produced 99 tornadoes. The U.S. long-term annual average hovers near 1,250, with the April–June peak contributing the bulk; 2026 saw above-average activity in spring and early summer, including 399 preliminary reports in June alone. With September–December typically adding 150–250 more tornadoes under normal conditions, current trends imply a high probability of finishing well above 1,250, though final verified counts from the National Weather Service can shift modestly due to ongoing surveys and model refinements in remaining months. Traders appear to weigh these confirmed preliminary reports heavily in assessing the year’s trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 89%
1200–1249 5.2%
1150–1199 4.5%
1100–1149 3.3%
$82,166 Vol.
$82,166 Vol.
Jan 9, 2027
<950
1%
950–999
1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
1%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
5%
1200–1249
5%
1250+
89%
1250+ 89%
1200–1249 5.2%
1150–1199 4.5%
1100–1149 3.3%
$82,166 Vol.
$82,166 Vol.
Jan 9, 2027
<950
$23,728 Vol.
1%
950–999
$3,621 Vol.
1%
1000–1049
$3,451 Vol.
<1%
1050–1099
$9,172 Vol.
1%
1100–1149
$3,254 Vol.
3%
1150–1199
$4,082 Vol.
5%
1200–1249
$15,917 Vol.
5%
1250+
$18,941 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Elevated preliminary tornado counts through early September 2026, already totaling 1,419 according to Storm Prediction Center data, have driven strong market consensus toward the 1250+ outcome.** This figure reflects an active severe weather season, highlighted by a record-setting pace in Illinois and major outbreaks including a June 9–11 event that produced 99 tornadoes. The U.S. long-term annual average hovers near 1,250, with the April–June peak contributing the bulk; 2026 saw above-average activity in spring and early summer, including 399 preliminary reports in June alone. With September–December typically adding 150–250 more tornadoes under normal conditions, current trends imply a high probability of finishing well above 1,250, though final verified counts from the National Weather Service can shift modestly due to ongoing surveys and model refinements in remaining months. Traders appear to weigh these confirmed preliminary reports heavily in assessing the year’s trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volume
$82,166End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Elevated preliminary tornado counts through early September 2026, already totaling 1,419 according to Storm Prediction Center data, have driven strong market consensus toward the 1250+ outcome.** This figure reflects an active severe weather season, highlighted by a record-setting pace in Illinois and major outbreaks including a June 9–11 event that produced 99 tornadoes. The U.S. long-term annual average hovers near 1,250, with the April–June peak contributing the bulk; 2026 saw above-average activity in spring and early summer, including 399 preliminary reports in June alone. With September–December typically adding 150–250 more tornadoes under normal conditions, current trends imply a high probability of finishing well above 1,250, though final verified counts from the National Weather Service can shift modestly due to ongoing surveys and model refinements in remaining months. Traders appear to weigh these confirmed preliminary reports heavily in assessing the year’s trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$82,166End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated preliminary tornado counts through early September 2026, already totaling 1,419 according to Storm Prediction Center data, have driven strong market consensus toward the 1250+ outcome.** This figure reflects an active severe weather season, highlighted by a record-setting pace in Illinois and major outbreaks including a June 9–11 event that produced 99 tornadoes. The U.S. long-term annual average hovers near 1,250, with the April–June peak contributing the bulk; 2026 saw above-average activity in spring and early summer, including 399 preliminary reports in June alone. With September–December typically adding 150–250 more tornadoes under normal conditions, current trends imply a high probability of finishing well above 1,250, though final verified counts from the National Weather Service can shift modestly due to ongoing surveys and model refinements in remaining months. Traders appear to weigh these confirmed preliminary reports heavily in assessing the year’s trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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