Recent Flight 13 successes with the Starship V3 configuration—including intact reentry, an undamaged heat shield inspection, in-space Raptor relight, and Starlink V3 deployment—have strengthened trader confidence that SpaceX can achieve upper-stage tower catch and reflight by late 2027. Elon Musk’s projections for ship recovery attempts on upcoming flights and full reusability demonstrations in 2027 align with the 68% market-implied odds, especially as the booster stage has already demonstrated catch-and-reuse capability. The pending Flight 14 orbital profile will test critical elements like prolonged heat shield performance and deorbit burns, while FAA licensing and rapid turnaround timelines remain key variables that could accelerate or delay resolution before the 2028 deadline.