Recent polls conducted in early September project The Democrats, the left-wing party formed from the Labor-Meretz merger and led by Yair Golan, to secure 8–10 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election. These outcomes correspond to vote shares clustered around 7–9 percent amid a highly fragmented field where multiple opposition and right-wing lists compete for similar levels of support. The party’s July primaries drew an 86 percent turnout among over 112,000 members, signaling organizational strength, yet overall polling averages have shown only modest gains and remain sensitive to bloc dynamics, undecided voters, and potential late shifts in turnout or alliances. With projections straddling the 6–9 percent thresholds, trader probabilities stay closely balanced across the listed ranges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6-7% 35%
9%+ 35%
<6% 33%
7-8% 31%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<6%
33%
6-7%
35%
7-8%
31%
8-9%
31%
9%+
35%
6-7% 35%
9%+ 35%
<6% 33%
7-8% 31%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<6%
$0 Vol.
33%
6-7%
$0 Vol.
35%
7-8%
$0 Vol.
31%
8-9%
$0 Vol.
31%
9%+
$0 Vol.
35%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Democrats party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Democrats's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Democrats passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls conducted in early September project The Democrats, the left-wing party formed from the Labor-Meretz merger and led by Yair Golan, to secure 8–10 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election. These outcomes correspond to vote shares clustered around 7–9 percent amid a highly fragmented field where multiple opposition and right-wing lists compete for similar levels of support. The party’s July primaries drew an 86 percent turnout among over 112,000 members, signaling organizational strength, yet overall polling averages have shown only modest gains and remain sensitive to bloc dynamics, undecided voters, and potential late shifts in turnout or alliances. With projections straddling the 6–9 percent thresholds, trader probabilities stay closely balanced across the listed ranges.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Democrats party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Democrats's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Democrats passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Democrats party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Democrats's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Democrats passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Democrats party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Democrats's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Democrats passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls conducted in early September project The Democrats, the left-wing party formed from the Labor-Meretz merger and led by Yair Golan, to secure 8–10 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election. These outcomes correspond to vote shares clustered around 7–9 percent amid a highly fragmented field where multiple opposition and right-wing lists compete for similar levels of support. The party’s July primaries drew an 86 percent turnout among over 112,000 members, signaling organizational strength, yet overall polling averages have shown only modest gains and remain sensitive to bloc dynamics, undecided voters, and potential late shifts in turnout or alliances. With projections straddling the 6–9 percent thresholds, trader probabilities stay closely balanced across the listed ranges.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Democrats party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Democrats's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Democrats passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Democrats party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Democrats's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Democrats passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls conducted in early September project The Democrats, the left-wing party formed from the Labor-Meretz merger and led by Yair Golan, to secure 8–10 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election. These outcomes correspond to vote shares clustered around 7–9 percent amid a highly fragmented field where multiple opposition and right-wing lists compete for similar levels of support. The party’s July primaries drew an 86 percent turnout among over 112,000 members, signaling organizational strength, yet overall polling averages have shown only modest gains and remain sensitive to bloc dynamics, undecided voters, and potential late shifts in turnout or alliances. With projections straddling the 6–9 percent thresholds, trader probabilities stay closely balanced across the listed ranges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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