**Trader consensus centers on 400-500k deportations for 2026 because recent ICE data show enforcement operating at a sustained but constrained pace.** Through July 11 in fiscal year 2026, officials recorded 356,389 removals, averaging roughly 1,260 per day and exceeding the prior year’s full total. At current arrest and removal rates—supported by expanded detention capacity and additional agents—this trajectory points toward a calendar-year total in the mid-to-high 400,000s once the final months are included. Higher targets near or above 1 million remain distant, reflecting documented limits on daily arrests, court processing, and logistics despite administration priorities and supplemental funding. Self-deportation programs contribute additional departures, yet market pricing emphasizes verifiable ICE removals and the gap between stated goals and operational throughput. Recent summer arrest surges have not altered the underlying capacity constraints that keep the 400-500k band favored.